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Author Archives: John Brian Shannon

Air quality to get steadily worse until 2060 – then improves

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Most of the world’s energy supply is fossil fuel based. However, recent successes in renewable energy foretell a ‘cleaner’ future energy mix. Image courtesy of: http://www.drsoram.com

By John Brian Shannon

Every year, large amounts of man-made (anthropogenic) greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and other, more deadly gases, are added to the Earth’s atmosphere.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, mankind has been adding evermore CO2, coal soot, wood smoke, and other airborne emissions to the atmosphere. But in recent decades have we been adding more greenhouse gases to the planet’s natural systems than they can absorb.

For example, last year, human beings contributed a total of 37 Gigatons of CO2 (and CO2 equivalent) gases to the atmosphere. Less than half of this total was absorbed by what is termed ‘The Commons’ – which is manifested in this case, as the combined ability of the world’s oceans, forests and grasslands to absorb those emissions.

In brief, ocean plankton, the world’s forests, and grasslands, take in CO2 – and produce life-giving oxygen in return. All the world’s ocean plankton, the millions of square miles of forests and grasslands combined, remove less than 18 Gigatons of CO2 from the atmosphere per year.

Next year, we will contribute 38 Gigatons of CO2 and equivalent gases to the Earth’s atmosphere, and in 2015 we will contribute even more CO2 to the atmosphere. In 2016, and 2017, humans are projected to add even more CO2 to the air blanket surrounding the Earth.

Soon enough, ‘the commons’ will only be absorbing a third of all man-made CO2 production.

Which is exactly why we have global warming — and the negative consequences associated with global warming.

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CLICK HERE TO READ A BRIEF PRINCETON UNIVERSITY SUMMARY OF:

THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS by Garrett Hardin

“The tragedy of the commons is a dilemma arising from the situation in which multiple individuals, acting independently and rationally consulting their own self-interest, will ultimately deplete a shared limited resource even when it is clear that it is not in anyone’s long-term interest for this to happen. This dilemma was first described in an influential article titled “The Tragedy of the Commons,” written by Garrett Hardin and first published [1] in the journal Science in 1968.” — Princeton University (excerpt)

The present upward trend of CO2 production is expected to continue until 2060, when anthropogenic global CO2 levels will begin to fall dramatically according to the world’s major energy companies — which have predicted that solar, wind and other renewable energy will take the place of oil and gas.

The present renewable energy production is small when measured against the total amount of conventional energy. One bright spot, is that half of all new electrical energy production comes from renewable energy. And, due to aggressive clean air regulations in countries around the world (Denmark, Germany, the U.S., Japan, and others) soon, more of the world’s new (or under construction) energy power plants will be powered by renewable energy.

Some may think that we are putting ‘too much effort’ into the change-up to renewable energy, but they must remember that CO2 lingers for up to 100 years in the atmosphere — while some toxic airborne pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxides, H2S, and CFC’s, stay in the atmosphere for up to 33,000 years.

Much of the CO2 (and other, longer-lived greenhouse gases) produced during the Second World War era, is still with us — we are breathing it now, and will be for some time to come.

Think about all those Gigatons of (as yet unabsorbed) greenhouse gases which have been piling-up — some of which last for 100 years, while other greenhouse gases last up to 33,000 years.

And, we keep adding to it. Tick, tick, tick…

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Our Energy Future includes good news too!

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Most of the world’s energy supply is fossil fuel based. However, recent successes in renewable energy foretell a ‘cleaner’ future energy mix. Image courtesy of: http://www.drsoram.com

by John Brian Shannon

Most of the world’s energy supply is fossil fuel (86.2%) based. However, that statistic is set for unprecedented change as recent successes in renewable energy foretell of a ‘cleaner’ energy future.

World energy consumption increases every year, while the kinds of energy we use is changing, and environmental standards are (unequally) improving worldwide.

In short, we are using more energy — but it is ‘cleaner’ energy.

For instance, half of the added electrical capacity every year comes from renewable energy. And with major political initiatives in many countries promoting renewable energy, it is realistic to think that the share of renewables will increase over the coming decades.

Even major petroleum companies are changing their ways.

A recent, landmark report by Royal Dutch Shell illustrates a dramatically new order among the various kinds of energy and how the energy we use will change over the next 80-90 years. In Shell’s; NEW LENS SCENARIOS – A SHIFT IN PERSPECTIVE FOR A WORLD IN TRANSITION the company discusses two different scenarios, named ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ in our global energy future.

The boom in natural gas figures prominently, with natural gas quickly ramping-up to become the number one kind of energy in the world by 2030.

“The underlying pent-up demand for gas is very strong… we see it being sucked up, every molecule.” — Jeremy Bentham, the main authour of the NEW LENS SCENARIOS – A SHIFT IN PERSPECTIVE FOR A WORLD IN TRANSITION, talking about the anticipated level of demand for natural gas between now and 2030

Solar energy becomes the dominant kind of energy by the mid-2060’s supplying 38% of all demand worldwide!

While the ‘energy produced to emissions released ratio’ looks utterly dreadful over the short term, over the long term it looks quite wonderful. If only we had a time machine to take us to the latter half of this century, we could all go for a nice breath of fresh air!

For more information, please visit the following websites:

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Over the Top! Global CO2 hits 400ppm

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by John Brian Shannon

Following an upward trend that began with the Industrial Revolution, the parts per million (ppm) concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth’s atmosphere has soared from an average of 278 ppm in 1760, to an average of 400ppm in 2013 — while the average global temperature has seen a corresponding temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius during that timeframe.

Prior to the year 1760, CO2 levels moved from 185ppm to 278ppm over a 3 million year timespan – while the average global temperature saw a corresponding temperature increase of 3 degrees Celsius during that timeframe.

From studying air bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice, scientists know that going back 800,000 years, the carbon dioxide level oscillated in a tight band, from about 180 parts per million in the depths of ice ages to about 280 during the warm periods between. The evidence shows that global temperatures and CO2 levels are tightly linked.

For the entire period of human civilization, roughly 8,000 years, the carbon dioxide level was relatively stable near that upper bound. But the burning of fossil fuels has caused a 41 percent increase in the heat-trapping gas since the Industrial Revolution, a mere geological instant, and scientists say the climate is beginning to react, though they expect far larger changes in the future. – Justin Gillis, New York Times, Environment reporter

Human activity (primarily burning of fossil fuels and large-scale livestock and agriculture production) has changed our planetary climate. Almost as much change has occurred over the past 253 years, as occurred over the previous 3 million years!

“It symbolizes that so far we have failed miserably in tackling this problem.” — Pieter P. Tans, Program Monitoring Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

“It means we are quickly losing the possibility of keeping the climate below what people thought were tolerable thresholds.” — Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego

Here is a nice infographic from Climate Central

(Climate Central)

Infographic courtesy of: Climate Central

Did I mention that sea levels were 20 metres higher (66 feet) than they are nowadays, due to the completely-melted icecaps?

As global warming accelerates, most of the world’s cities could be under water before the end of the century, as many of them are already at or near, sea level now.

Did I mention that the CO2 we are putting into the air will stay in the atmosphere for up to 100 years and it will continue to help increase the global temperature the entire time?

The CO2 that was put into the air in 1960, could still be around for up to another 47 years. Almost without exception, every new year we put more of it into the atmosphere than the year before.

Last year, 2012, we put 36 billion tons (36 Gigatons) of man-made CO2 into the atmosphere — and the Earth systems were only able to absorb half of that. This basic ratio has been occurring for many years now. In 2013, we will add more than 37 Gigatons of greenhouse gases to the air-mass that surrounds the Earth.

What is even worse, and is not being discussed in all of this, is that Oxygen, the one gas that is absolutely necessary for all animal life on the planet, is slowly being replaced by CO2. Oxygen is consumed when fossil fuels, or almost any fuel combusts (burns), and CO2 is what is left over after the Oxygen is consumed.

Professor Ian Plimer of Adelaide University and Professor Jon Harrison of the University of Arizona concur. Like most other scientists they accept that oxygen levels in the atmosphere in prehistoric times averaged around 30% to 35%, compared to only 21% today – and that the levels are even less in densely populated, polluted city centres and industrial complexes, perhaps only 15 % or lower. – Peter Tatchell, “The oxygen crisis” Could the decline of oxygen in the atmosphere undermine our health and threaten human survival?” The Guardian

In humans, failure of oxygen energy metabolism is the single most important risk factor for chronic diseases including cancer and death. ‘Oxygen deficiency’ is currently set at 19.5 percent in enclosed spaces for health and safety [6], below that, fainting and death may result. – Institute of Science in Society (ISIS)  Living with Oxygen (SiS 43)

Not only are CO2 levels rising dramatically and warming the planet — potentially flooding huge rural areas and cities before the end of the century, but Oxygen levels worldwide are falling.

Oxygen Depletion

Our civilization is at a critical juncture. 

Are we up to the task of making the right decisions, or will we take a pass — thereby forcing our grandchildren to wear oxygen masks every time they leave our airlocked houses to walk to their airlocked school, while we work in office buildings with airlocks and drive cars with oxygen bottles in the passenger compartment, to boost-up the breathable oxygen inside the car, so we don’t fall asleep from breathing higher levels of CO2 and lower levels of life-sustaining oxygen? This scenario is no longer science fiction, but an eventual reality if we don’t change course.

To our credit, we now realize that excessive atmospheric greenhouse gas levels equates to and is directly-linked to excessive consumption of oxygen caused by fossil fuel use and other combustible materials being burned, and we know that CO2 stays in the atmosphere for up to 100 years.

All of which means that much sooner than we may realize, some very serious choices must be made regarding our future fossil fuel burning and combustion-based civilization.

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Hybrid Power plants: Renewable Energy’s Newest Trend

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Image Courtesy of: SolarPraxis

by John Brian Shannon

One option for renewable energy producers that has been open to utility companies but rarely utilized, is the installation of both wind and solar power plants together at the same location, which results in a doubling in the amount of electricity produced.

Prior to a study done by Reiner Lemoine Institut and Solarpraxis AG, it was (incorrectly) thought that the huge towers upon which the wind turbines are mounted would cast long shadows over the photovoltaic solar panel array, thereby reducing their efficiency by a significant factor.

It turns out that when solar and wind power generation are combined on the same site, such hybrid power plants complement each other better, than had been imagined. Approximately twice the power generation is available from any such hybrid power plant site, when compared to wind only, or solar only.

Click here to read the Solarpraxis AG, news release.

The landmark study took into account the amount of sunlight loss (shading) which would occur in a carefully designed hybrid power plant. Energy losses were less than 2 percent of total output. This is a lower energy loss percentage, than compared to conventional power plant energy, such as coal — where up to 10 percent of the coal can be lost during transport from North America-to-China, or from Australia-to-China, and later storage, for example.

 A major benefit of such hybrid power plants is that due to the relative intermittency of both wind power and solar power is they tend to cancel out the others weaknesses. Grid expansion, is therefore not required for hybrid power plants. Wind power peaks at night, during cool days, and in the colder seasons of the year — while solar produces power during the daylight hours, the warmer parts of the day and most especially during the warmer seasons, when the Sun is high in the sky, directly over the solar panel array.

“Until now, it was thought that the shadows cast on solar plants by wind turbines led to high yield losses. The study shows, however, that these shading losses are much lower than expected, provided the hybrid power plant is well designed. Initial requests to create yield reports as well as technical and economic system planning have given us cause to hope that the more efficient utilization of space and infrastructure created by hybrid power plants has excellent prospects for the future.” — Alexander Woitas, Head of the Engineering Department at Solarpraxis AG

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Image Courtesy of: SolarPraxis

Many utility companies are already operating solar and wind hybrid power plants, or are planning for such installations over the next few years.

The U.S. state of Massachusetts has easily surpassed its previous goal of 250 megawatts (MW) of solar energy by 2017 and is planning to increase that goal to 1,600 MW (1.6 GW) of solar energy by 2017. View an interactive wind power map for the U.S. state of Massachusetts (103 MW as of 2012).

Boulder City, Nevada, is likewise adding wind turbines to their huge and ongoing solar power plant installations — so they can sell solar electricity to nearby cities and towns during the day, while adding the ability to sell wind electricity during the night. Find out about another U.S. state of Nevada wind energy project (151.8 MW as of 2013).

Washington Gas Energy Services (WGES) in Washington, D.C., buys wind power from a nearby producer and solar power from another nearby producer, and sells that electricity to residents, businesses, industry and the government throughout the northeast United States, including D.C.

I recently interviewed Mr. Harry Warren, the President of WGES, and speaking on the intermittency of wind power (and similar applies to solar power) that it is quite normal for different power producers to add their particular kind of power at different times of the day.

“The power grid operates with a variety of power plants constantly coming on line, going off line, and ramping production up and down to meet the varying demand for electricity over the course of the day and over the course of the year. There are always power plants idle and ready to generate more as part of the overall plan to assure reliable power.

So, nothing special is needed to back up wind power. Load merely shifts to other power plants when the wind isn’t blowing.

When the wind is blowing, other power plants, many of which burn fossil fuels like coal, ramp their operation down.” – WGES President, Harry Warren

Click here to read Part I, Part II and Part III of my interview with Harry Warren, WGES President.

Wind and solar power combined in hybrid power plants can add power 24/7/365 to any electrical grid, lower emission levels and help to levelize the cost of electricity for consumers.

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C40 Initiative: Mirror, Mirror, on the Wall, Which Is the Greenest City of All?

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San Francisco, U.S.A. Image courtesy of C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group.

A growing and forward thinking organisation called the C40 Initiative, promotes sustainable development for the world’s cities. C40 cities are conducting empirical research to perfect ways to lower CO2 levels and employ programmes such as ‘Reduce, Reuse and Recycle’ within city government departments and are also offered to city residents.

C40 cities today comprise 58 cities as of May, 2013. These cities represent 18 percent of global GDP and 1 in 12 people worldwide live in a C40 city.

Here are some featured C40 cities with links to their successes and challenges;

The Golden Gate Bridge, San Francisco, USA. (Anthony Larson / Flickr)

San Francisco, United States

As one of the most sustainable cities in the U.S., San Francisco has plans to move to zero waste by 2020. The city currently recycles or composts 77% of its waste, the highest rate of any major U.S. city. For more information on San Francisco’s sustainability successes click on this link.

Sydney Harbor Opera House and skyline in Sydney, Australia. (Fuse / Getty)

Sydney, Australia

This Australian city has planned a large-scale scheme to have every resident be within a 250-metre walk of continuous green links that connect to major city parks. To read more fascinating information on the Sydney story, click here.

Sunset over Westminster and Houses of Parliament, London, UK. (Anthony Beyga / Getty)

London, United Kingdom

London’s innovative congestion charging scheme has reduced vehicle numbers in the central business district by 70,000 per day, cutting CO2 emissions in central London by 15% since 2003. Read more about their impressive progress, here.

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. (Travlr / Flickr)

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

This African metropolis is using low-carbon building designs in an enormous construction programme that is moving a large population from unplanned ‘shanty towns’ into more formal living arrangements. The Mayor of Addis Ababa has plans to lower the city’s CO2 emissions by 75% in 2020, as compared to 2010 levels.

View of Chao Phraya River in city of Bangkok.

Bangkok, Thailand

Highly threatened by climate change, including an increase in extreme weather and heatwaves, the city has introduced a number of ambitious local public health infrastructure and education programmes. Read more about the threat of having to relocate an entire city, due to rising (global) sea levels and a slowly sinking (local conditions) city.

Each city in the C40 is unique in its infrastructure and progress in addressing climate change. C40 works to empower cities to connect with each other and share technical expertise on best practices. – C40

Strong advocates for the role of cities in addressing climate change.

  • C40 was created in 2005 by former Mayor of London Ken Livingstone, and forged a partnership in 2006 with the Cities Program of President Clinton’s Climate Initiative (CCI) to reduce carbon emissions and increase energy efficiency in large cities across the world. Under the leadership of then Mayor of Toronto David Miller, who served after Mayor Livingstone as C40 Chair, the organisation advanced programs and partnerships that drew international recognition for the role of cities as leaders in climate action.
  • The current chair of C40 is New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg who leads the C40 together with the steering committee and executive leadership team.

 

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All information, courtesy of C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group.

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Bicycle-Sharing Systems: Pedal your way to Better Health

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by John Brian Shannon

Honk your horn, if you want better health!

OK, we all want to feel healthier, and many people these days ‘want to do their part’ to lower their personal carbon footprint. One way to accomplish both at the same time is to ride a bike anytime you can. It is so obviously, a good thing to do.

But when you are traveling, it can be difficult to lug your bike around just so that you can take a daily, hour-long ride in Naples, Barcelona, Miami Beach, or other warm and sunny place.

So, it may surprise you to know just how many bikes are available for rent at low cost, or are completely free to use, from the so-called Bicycle Sharing Systems (BSS) in many of the world’s cities. The total number of bikes available from the various BSS’s  around the world at the end of 2011, was 236,000 bicycles. That’s right, from 5 European-only operations with less than 100 bicycles ten years ago — to over 375 BSS’s worldwide, with 236,000 bikes in almost every country as of Dec 31st, 2011, BSS is a textbook definition of high growth!

Launched in 2008, the Hangzhou Public Bicycle programme in China is the largest bicycle sharing system in the world, with around 61,000 bicycles and over 2,400 stations; the Vélib’ in Paris, which encompasses 20,000 bicycles and 1,450 bicycle stations is the largest outside of China.[2] Other countries with systems are Spain (100+), Italy (80), and Germany (50). – Wikipedia

Please note, the following map does not cover free-to-use bikes which are provided by some cities or towns — nor does it cover bikes you rent from a real human being at a bike rental shop, or other bikes which may be rented in various ways. This Bike-sharing World Map shows only 2nd generation (coin deposit) and 3rd generation (high-tech) bike-sharing services, and the information is provided in conjunction with The Bike-sharing Blog by MetroBike, LLC. Here is the BikesharingMap Twitter account: @BikesharingMap

Accompanying the Google map is a comprehensive list of cities with bike-sharing, rental information and the number of bikes available within each city.

According to the Bike-sharing World Map info — just the cities and towns beginning with the letter “A” boast some 5000 bikes which are available only by coin deposit and high-tech (pre-paid passcard or credit card) but the numbers may be even higher, as accurate record-keeping is difficult to maintain with high rates of growth. (Again, on this map, the number of bikes available does not include bikes that are available at 1st generation bike-sharing, or bike-rental services — nor does it include free-to-use bike services.)

There are many compelling reasons to have a bike-sharing operation in your city or town. If you drive part-way to work in the city, many cities have convenient and low cost parking areas for your car which is where you pick up a bike. Done with your bike? Just pull out your smartphone, it will display a drop-off point close to you.

Does your city have a bike-sharing program or low cost bike-rentals? If it doesn’t, ask why not.

Solar powered bike-docking stations are popping up across New York City in preparation for the launch of the United States’ largest bike-sharing program, CitiBike. The initial roll-out of the program will include 300 stations and 5,500 bikes. A few years ago, the city’s department of transportation (otherwise known as NYC Dot) started replacing single-space parking meters with bike parking. Now, many more parking spaces will be converted into CitiBike hubs. – Meribeth Deen, EnergyBoom.com

Cities like Washington, D.C., can’t install bike stations fast enough to keep up with the demand — even with their time-weighted pricing schedule. The D.C. program has been called a victim of it’s own success.

  • From a government perspective, having healthier citizens will help to lower total health infrastructure expenditures and overall health care costs, while cleaner air and less traffic congestion in downtown or tourist areas can improve access, lower infrastructure costs and improve the visitor experience — meaning visitors might stay longer and spend more money.
  • For daily commuters or for tourists from outside the immediate area, adding the option of affordable bikes, means lower gasoline and parking costs. It adds convenience, health and enjoyment to their visit.

So, the next time you are planning to run errands downtown in the car (and trying to find parking spots) or if you are enjoying a weekend at the beach, ask yourself; Would my life be more enjoyable and would I spend less money on parking fees and gasoline, if I simply rented a bike?

Of course it would. Enjoy getting that extra sunshine! It will do you a world of good.

(Check the rates in your city.)

(Here is a handy carbon footprint calculator from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)

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Washington, D.C. — Union Station Now Powered by 100 Percent Wind Energy

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Historic Landmark Increases Environmental Commitment

(Washington, D.C.) The most visited tourist site in Washington, D.C. strengthens its dedication to environmental sustainability. Union Station has signed a three-year contract for 100 percent WGES CleanSteps® WindPower from Herndon-based Washington Gas Energy Services (WGES). One of the nation’s premier, historic transportation hubs, Union Station previously used 50 percent WGES CleanSteps® WindPower for its electricity needs.

“Reducing our environmental impact is a key priority for Union Station and using renewable wind energy greatly aids us in decreasing our carbon footprint. As one of the most visited tourist destinations in the world, Union Station’s switch to wind energy through Washington Gas Energy Services is an important milestone in its history and a great opportunity to inform visitors about wind energy’s viability for businesses of all sizes.” — Roy Staeck, vice president of business development for Union Station

Month-long Interactive Eco-friendly Event at Union Station

Union Station is hosting Earth Month 2013, a month-long event throughout April featuring interactive, eco-friendly experiences designed to raise awareness of environmental issues and encourage sustainability. Presented by Earth Day Network and the Premier Tourist and Landmark Association, this event will reach the more than 100,000 visitors who travel through Union Station’s doors each day. As an event sponsor, Washington Gas Energy Services will educate attendees about how they can reduce the environmental impact of their energy use through carbon offsets and wind power.

Calculate Your Carbon Foot Print

What is your carbon foot print?

If you are a corporation or an individual, no matter where you are in the world, you can measure your carbon foot print here. 

How to get Green Energy Working for You!

In the District of Columbia, Maryland and Pennsylvania, businesses, organizations, government entities, institutions and individual residents can purchase their electricity and natural gas supply from retail energy providers. Customers in Virginia may purchase natural gas and customers in Delaware may purchase electricity from retail energy providers. To learn more about WGES and its CleanSteps® products, visit http://www.wges.com or call 1-888-884-WGES (9437).

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Ethanol’s Obvious Answer to the EPA’s Low-Sulfur Gasoline Regulations

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The EPA’s newly-proposed Tier 3 rule would cut sulfur levels in American gasoline by two-thirds, and by 2018 the new standard could be fully implemented.

According to the EPA, introducing and enforcing the new regulations would cost $3.4 billion between now and 2018, but Americans would save $23 billion in health care and environmental costs — amounting to a net savings of $19.6 billion dollars over the same time frame.

EPA is proposing the Tier 3 standards to address public health issues that exist currently and are projected to continue in the future as requested in a May 21, 2010 Presidential memorandum;

[From Section 2.1] “Over 158 million Americans are currently experiencing unhealthy levels of air pollution which are linked with adverse health impacts such as hospital admissions, emergency room visits, and premature mortality. Motor vehicles are a particularly important source of exposure to air pollution, especially in urban areas.”

[From Section 2.4] “EPA is also proposing that federal gasoline contain no more than 10 parts per million (ppm) of sulfur on an annual average basis by January 1, 2017. In addition, EPA is proposing to either maintain the current 80-ppm refinery gate and 95-ppm downstream caps or lower them to 50 and 65 ppm, respectively. The proposed Tier 3 gasoline sulfur standards are similar to levels already being achieved in California, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and several other countries.” – U.S. EPA 

Longer longer life-expectancy for citizens, a better quality-of-life during the time they are living in the U.S. and lower acid rain levels will result from this new regulation standard — benefiting many Americans while lessening the damage caused by acid rain to national infrastructure. Acid rain damage translates into crop damage, forest ecosystem damage (‘crowning’ on trees) and ‘spalling’ on concrete structures (especially historic concrete structures like the Brooklyn Bridge, for just one example) which are caused solely by acid rain — whether from anthropogenic (man-made) sources, or from minor acid rain causes, like volcano’s or forest fires.

(Read about anthropogenic acid rain damage to the bronze statues at Harvard University, here.)

Increasing the ethanol level in U.S. gasoline neatly solves the problem, as it has no sulfur component whatsoever. Simply increasing the percentage of ethanol in gasoline will allow oil companies to meet the new regulations. New cars and light trucks sold in the U.S.A. from 1990 onwards are able to run up to 85% ethanol with no harm to engine or exhaust components – in fact, ethanol is easy on engines and their related systems precisely because it burns so cleanly.

The EPA refers to the proposed new regulations as “common-sense standards” that will save American lives and money. The oil and gas industry are attempting to influence public opinion, by saying they must now invest $10 billion in new infrastructure, (one-time-cost) and spend $2.4 billion per year to cover the increased operating costs to implement the standards — resulting in an increased price at the pump of 9 cents per gallon.

Others, such as the U.S. auto industry are concerned with the proposal, saying European-style gasoline prices could be the end result. – OilPrice.com (newsletter)

Instead of spending billions on unproven and expensive technology to solve this problem, simply adding a larger percentage of bio-ethanol can solve the problem of sulfur content in gasoline. And as ethanol and bio-ethanol are already part of the petroleum feedstock, no other alterations need to be made to existing refineries to increase the percentage of ethanol or bio-ethanol in gasoline.

A happy coincidence related to this problem and its implementation timeline, is that new bio-ethanol supply streams are already available. In addition to the successful algae and camelina bio-fuel projects which the EIA, the U.S. Navy, Boeing, and Virgin Atlantic have all reported excellent results with — these organizations are now developing large scale biofuel supplies to fuel their fleets.

“Boeing’s (SBRTP) Sustainable Biofuels Research & Technology Program reported up to 80% lower CO2 emissions when compared to petroleum-sourced jet fuel.” – John Brian Shannon, Huffington Post

A second-generation bio-fuel, switchgrass — and other crops which grow well in poor soils and are tolerant of drought conditions, are becoming available to farmers who are able to grow this bio-fuel crop on marginal land and with little water usage. Not only that, the naturally self-seeding and disease resistant species require little or no pesticides or land-management such as, but not limited to, tilling, seeding, irrigation, repeated chemical applications and the like. Switchgrass (a tall, native, coarse grass of the American prairie) is being cultivated in the U.S. for bio-ethanol production at experimental facilities, where new enzymes and harvesting techniques are now showing good results.

Regarding third-generation bio-fuels, ethanol from algae shows record-smashing potential.

Algae can produce up to 300 times more oil per unit area than conventional [biofuel] crops such as rapeseed, palms, soybeans, or jatropha. As algae have a harvesting cycle of 1–10 days, their cultivation permits several harvests in a very short time-frame, a strategy differing from that associated with yearly crops (Chisti 2007).

Algae can grow on land unsuitable for other established crops, for instance: arid land, land with excessively saline soil, and drought-stricken land. This minimizes the issue of taking away pieces of land from the cultivation of food crops (Schenk et al. 2008).[41] Algae can grow 20 to 30 times faster than food crops. – Wikipedia

Simply stated, the solution to lower sulfur content in gasoline, is to increase bio-ethanol production. Farmers have plenty of marginal and otherwise unusable lands and will be quite happy to hear about the new EPA regulations.

It can become a ‘win-win’ situation for everyone, if we look profoundly enough at the situation that now exists and then move towards the obvious policies to take us into conformance with the EPA’s proposed new regulations.

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A Match made in Heaven: Solar power and Water desalination

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by John Brian Shannon

The nations of the Persian Gulf and Arabian Gulf are blessed to have access to unfathomable amounts of sunlight and salt water. With growing populations and scarce water reserves, governments, public or privately-held power companies and water utilities can capitalize on these national assets — when the economics work.

Even when the economics don’t work, human beings still need water! Growing cities need water for domestic use and industry needs water to produce the goods that we buy, or that they export.

In previous decades, the power-hungry desalination plants widely-used throughout the Middle East were powered by electricity created from burning vast amounts of fossil fuel. The economics barely worked when the oil prices were low – but now, with oil once more approaching $100. per barrel, they are costing a king’s ransom to operate. Even oil-rich kingdoms are feeling the pinch nowadays.

A cogent case can be made for adopting alternative energy to power existing and future desalination plants – thereby allowing that oil and gas to be sold at export instead of being burned up. Why burn your money?

The question for Oman is; How much of Oman’s oil and gas is burning up at desal plants — instead of being exported to add to Oman’s GDP?

At $96.80/barrel for oil (April 2/13) and the natural gas price passing $4.08/MMBtu (April 2/13) the annual fuel cost to produce electricity with fossil fuel is unimaginably high. Really, you don’t want to know.

Fossil fuel exports power the economies of rapidly growing Middle East and North Africa (MENA) nations. Each barrel of oil burned for local desal operations, is one less barrel contributing to the national GDP. A similar situation is at play with regards to natural gas in Oman and the other GCC nations.

Modern solar power plants, such as Masdar’s Shams 1 solar power plant can produce 100 megawatts of clean power for 30-years or more, powered only by sunshine. These modern electrical energy power plants are powerful enough to run; (1) a desalination plant, with enough energy surplus to run (2) a nearby town, or (3) a rural area – or, perhaps all three!

There are two basic types of solar power;

  • Photovoltaic solar, properly called ‘PV-solar’ or ‘PV-solar modules’. The solar panels only produce power when the Sun is shining. Which is fine, because the highest electrical demand occurs during daylight hours.
  • Thermal solar, known as ‘Concentrated Solar Power’ or ‘CSP’ produce power 24 hours a day, by storing excess daytime heat in liquids such as molten salt or oil, to run a steam turbine/electricity generator.

PV-solar (panels) have increased efficiency from their 1980’s-era, 11% efficiency rating — to today’s +33% efficiency rating units. Panels with much higher efficiency ratings (perhaps as high as 100%) will hit the market within 20-years. And through all this, PV-solar panel prices have been falling dramatically, to the point that PV-solar utility-scale power plants are now price-competitive with other kinds of power – assuming similar subsidy levels are in place.

Solar Bonus

As PV-efficiency continues to increase through the next few years, just as it has been doing thus far, PV-solar ‘scaling up’ will be very easy. For example, solar panels are size-standardized, so simply unbolting the ‘old’ 11% efficiency panels and replacing them with the ‘new’ 22% efficiency panels, effectively doubles the power output of the solar power plant — practically overnight! (e.g.; 100 MW to 200 MW)

A few years later, when PV-efficiency increases, those (by then) ‘old’ 22% panels can be replaced with ‘new’ 45% efficiency panels – thereby doubling (again!) the total output of the solar power plant. The ‘old’ solar panels will still work fine, and they can be sold to developing nations, or traded-in against the cost of the new panels, just the same way you would trade your old car for a new one.

In fact, PV-solar power now costs less than comparable coal-fired power — and that’s not factoring in the costly ‘externalities’ of coal-fired electrical power generation, which range from huge amounts of water usage by coal-fired power plants, to toxic airborne emissions, to adverse health effects on citizens – which prematurely killed 1.2 million people in 2010, in China alone!

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PV-solar power now costs less than comparable coal-fired power

CSP solar technology has advanced remarkably and several different designs have proven themselves viable in Spain, the United States and the UAE, although CSP costs are still high when compared to PV-solar and conventional power. This is changing as CSP production ramps up around the world. The one great advantage of CSP solar, is that these power plants produce power 24-hours per day, 365-days per year – and, no harmful emissions.

Holding nearly half of the world’s renewable energy potential, the Middle East and North Africa are poised for unprecedented growth in renewable energy. — Masdar

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Masdar’s Shams 1 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) 100 megawatt power plant near Abu Dhabi. image courtesy: Masdar

“The inauguration of Shams 1 is a breakthrough for renewable energy development in the Middle East. With the demand for energy rising exponentially, the region is undergoing a major transformation in how it generates electricity. In fact, the Middle East is poised for major investments in renewables, and Shams 1 proves the economic and environmental advantage of deploying large-scale solar projects.” — His Excellency Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of Masdar. (Read Masdar Shams 1 Press Release here)

It’s safe to say that MENA nations should be planning a long-term switch to solar energy, starting with PV-solar now, and CSP solar starting within the next ten years.

Financing these new, pollution-free power plants could be assisted by GCC government investment (sovereign wealth funds) financed through increased oil and gas exports – as oil and gas will be ‘freed-up’ for sale to international buyers.

It must be said that in areas of the country that make the switch from fossil fuel to solar, the cost of externalities will fall and residents will notice better health and enhanced ‘quality of life’ due to lower airborne emission levels and governments will notice lower health care costs. Not to mention plenty of clean, low-cost water for citizens and industry.

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Wind power surpasses Nuclear in China

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The Chinese government has committed itself to producing 16% of its primary (electrical) energy from renewable sources by 2020 — UNEP | Photo credit: Barton Merle-Smith, Wind Currents

 

Wind power surpassed nuclear power to become China’s third-largest energy source.

In 2007, due to the political leadership of then-President Hu Jintao and then-Premier Wen Jaiboa of China, renewable energy began a dramatic surge which continues to this day — one that by all accounts is expected to continue in that rapidly growing, and energy-ravenous country. A fortuitous convergence of German wind turbine technology, combined with the ability to manufacture them in China, ushered-in sudden lower prices for wind energy projects in the country. The resultant boom in wind turbine installations continues to this day.

Wind power [in China] exhibited an annual growth rate of more than 100 per cent from 2005 to 2009. With new installations of 13.8 GW coming on line in 2009, China led the world in added capacity, and is second in terms of installed capacity, after the U.S.  – UNEP Green Economy Success Stories Renewable Energy in China

Although wind installations in the country slowed in 2012 due to market forces, (compared to their breakneck 2011 pace) the rate of wind turbine installations are again expected to increase to record levels.

He Dexin, Chairman of the China Wind Energy Association said; [The] country’s development of wind power has slowed down, with 14 gigawatts of newly installed capacity from wind turbines in 2012, down from 20.66 gigawatts in 2011. — People’s Daily Online

But based on current projects under construction, China will be operating more than 100,000 megawatts (100 GW) of grid-connected wind capacity by 2015. The Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association (CREIA) says China will be operating 200,000 megawatts (200 GW) of wind power by 2020.

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Image courtesy: IAEA (republished by Earth Policy Institute)

 

China has astronomical wind power potential, with total wind energy resources far outstripping electrical consumption in the country.

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Image courtesy: EIA (republished by Earth Policy Institute)

Exponential growth for wind power is in China’s energy future as they ramp-up wind capacity from 2% of the total electrical energy mix in 2012, towards the Chinese government’s goal of supplying 16% of the country’s electrical energy requirements with renewable sources of all kinds, by 2020. Wind will form a large part of China’s renewable energy portfolio — as it is the natural choice for the country due to the steady onshore and offshore winds in thousands of suitable locations.

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