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A Match made in Heaven: Solar power and Water desalination

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by John Brian Shannon

The nations of the Persian Gulf and Arabian Gulf are blessed to have access to unfathomable amounts of sunlight and salt water. With growing populations and scarce water reserves, governments, public or privately-held power companies and water utilities can capitalize on these national assets — when the economics work.

Even when the economics don’t work, human beings still need water! Growing cities need water for domestic use and industry needs water to produce the goods that we buy, or that they export.

In previous decades, the power-hungry desalination plants widely-used throughout the Middle East were powered by electricity created from burning vast amounts of fossil fuel. The economics barely worked when the oil prices were low – but now, with oil once more approaching $100. per barrel, they are costing a king’s ransom to operate. Even oil-rich kingdoms are feeling the pinch nowadays.

A cogent case can be made for adopting alternative energy to power existing and future desalination plants – thereby allowing that oil and gas to be sold at export instead of being burned up. Why burn your money?

The question for Oman is; How much of Oman’s oil and gas is burning up at desal plants — instead of being exported to add to Oman’s GDP?

At $96.80/barrel for oil (April 2/13) and the natural gas price passing $4.08/MMBtu (April 2/13) the annual fuel cost to produce electricity with fossil fuel is unimaginably high. Really, you don’t want to know.

Fossil fuel exports power the economies of rapidly growing Middle East and North Africa (MENA) nations. Each barrel of oil burned for local desal operations, is one less barrel contributing to the national GDP. A similar situation is at play with regards to natural gas in Oman and the other GCC nations.

Modern solar power plants, such as Masdar’s Shams 1 solar power plant can produce 100 megawatts of clean power for 30-years or more, powered only by sunshine. These modern electrical energy power plants are powerful enough to run; (1) a desalination plant, with enough energy surplus to run (2) a nearby town, or (3) a rural area – or, perhaps all three!

There are two basic types of solar power;

  • Photovoltaic solar, properly called ‘PV-solar’ or ‘PV-solar modules’. The solar panels only produce power when the Sun is shining. Which is fine, because the highest electrical demand occurs during daylight hours.
  • Thermal solar, known as ‘Concentrated Solar Power’ or ‘CSP’ produce power 24 hours a day, by storing excess daytime heat in liquids such as molten salt or oil, to run a steam turbine/electricity generator.

PV-solar (panels) have increased efficiency from their 1980’s-era, 11% efficiency rating — to today’s +33% efficiency rating units. Panels with much higher efficiency ratings (perhaps as high as 100%) will hit the market within 20-years. And through all this, PV-solar panel prices have been falling dramatically, to the point that PV-solar utility-scale power plants are now price-competitive with other kinds of power – assuming similar subsidy levels are in place.

Solar Bonus

As PV-efficiency continues to increase through the next few years, just as it has been doing thus far, PV-solar ‘scaling up’ will be very easy. For example, solar panels are size-standardized, so simply unbolting the ‘old’ 11% efficiency panels and replacing them with the ‘new’ 22% efficiency panels, effectively doubles the power output of the solar power plant — practically overnight! (e.g.; 100 MW to 200 MW)

A few years later, when PV-efficiency increases, those (by then) ‘old’ 22% panels can be replaced with ‘new’ 45% efficiency panels – thereby doubling (again!) the total output of the solar power plant. The ‘old’ solar panels will still work fine, and they can be sold to developing nations, or traded-in against the cost of the new panels, just the same way you would trade your old car for a new one.

In fact, PV-solar power now costs less than comparable coal-fired power — and that’s not factoring in the costly ‘externalities’ of coal-fired electrical power generation, which range from huge amounts of water usage by coal-fired power plants, to toxic airborne emissions, to adverse health effects on citizens – which prematurely killed 1.2 million people in 2010, in China alone!

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PV-solar power now costs less than comparable coal-fired power

CSP solar technology has advanced remarkably and several different designs have proven themselves viable in Spain, the United States and the UAE, although CSP costs are still high when compared to PV-solar and conventional power. This is changing as CSP production ramps up around the world. The one great advantage of CSP solar, is that these power plants produce power 24-hours per day, 365-days per year – and, no harmful emissions.

Holding nearly half of the world’s renewable energy potential, the Middle East and North Africa are poised for unprecedented growth in renewable energy. — Masdar

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Masdar’s Shams 1 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) 100 megawatt power plant near Abu Dhabi. image courtesy: Masdar

“The inauguration of Shams 1 is a breakthrough for renewable energy development in the Middle East. With the demand for energy rising exponentially, the region is undergoing a major transformation in how it generates electricity. In fact, the Middle East is poised for major investments in renewables, and Shams 1 proves the economic and environmental advantage of deploying large-scale solar projects.” — His Excellency Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of Masdar. (Read Masdar Shams 1 Press Release here)

It’s safe to say that MENA nations should be planning a long-term switch to solar energy, starting with PV-solar now, and CSP solar starting within the next ten years.

Financing these new, pollution-free power plants could be assisted by GCC government investment (sovereign wealth funds) financed through increased oil and gas exports – as oil and gas will be ‘freed-up’ for sale to international buyers.

It must be said that in areas of the country that make the switch from fossil fuel to solar, the cost of externalities will fall and residents will notice better health and enhanced ‘quality of life’ due to lower airborne emission levels and governments will notice lower health care costs. Not to mention plenty of clean, low-cost water for citizens and industry.

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2012: The Year in Graphs from the WP Wonkblog team!

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[Courtesy of:  The Washington Post]

Click here: 2012: The Year in Graphs  Posted by The Washington Post — Wonkblog Team on December 27, 2012

“As 2012 draws to a close, Wonkblog asked our favorite professional wonks — economists, political scientists, politicians and more — to see what graphs and charts they felt did the best job explaining the past year. Here are their nominees.” The Wonkblog Team.

[A special, year-end treat! Such great charts and no opinions to be found. Read the charts, absorb the new information, and make up your own mind.] – Ed.

Happy Holidays!!!

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Is Growth Over? — MY COMMENT

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by John Brian Shannon

Read Paul Krugman’s fascinating New York Times economics blog “Is Growth Over” which deals with the political, economic and social picture of the future.

Some nations are replacing retiring workers with robots at an accelerating pace — and for good reason.

In Germany, this is an absolute necessity as a huge pool of German workers are approaching retirement and there aren’t nearly enough Germans to replace them. Germany imports (low) millions of workers from Turkey and the MENA nations, but Germany still can’t keep up with the demand for labour in their export-driven economy.

What’s a country to do? Phone all their export customers and tell them they can’t produce all the widgets they ordered? Not the German way!

So, I understand, precisely, the position of the Germans and agree with their moral reasoning and their necessary choice.

While at the same time, I worry about other nations (us) making a massive shift to robotics – for very different reasons, and none of them moral — causing workers (who are human beings, after all) to become redundant while concentrating evermore billions into the hands of the infamous 1% of the population.

A switch to robots to improve the bottom line could become a threat to millions of workers in the coming decades and might become the most profound, social issue since the 1960′s anti-war movement.

Replacing retiring workers with robots (as is the case with Germany now) is a moral decision, which was made to ensure the German economy does not falter and thereby harm large numbers of citizens.

In this case, it is a completely understandable and moral decision, one that benefits vast numbers of German citizens.

Replacing presently-employed workers with robots so that 1% of the U.S. population can make more profit is an immoral decision, which will allow the 1% to keep evermore of the U.S. money supply for themselves at the expense of the other 99% of the population.

In this case, it is not understandable, nor is it a moral decision – as it primarily benefits 1% of citizens over 99% of citizens.

It will come down to this, will we assure human rights for American citizens who want jobs and want to contribute to their nation’s economy, or will we favour a small number of people (the 1%) who want more, more, more, for themselves?

Who is America in business for? The 1% or the 99% of American citizens? It is a political, economic and social decision that voters will need to make in the next election cycle.

Or, put another way, should 3.1 million citizens have near total employment and economic control over 315 million citizens? [315,091,138 U.S. Census Bureau Jan 1, 2013 estimate]

Unfortunately, the 1% may be holding all the cards by the time a full conversation can occur and by the time the masses fully realize this, it may be far too late to do anything about it.

There is a better way. Read the Financial Post‘s “Employee compensation is an integral part of corporate culture” by Marty Parker, for one shining example of a better way. While just the tip of the iceberg, this one example could foreshadow a quiet and heart-warming revolution, one that benefits workers and corporations, while strengthening the very fabric of our Western society.

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The Next Trillion-dollar Business

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by John Brian Shannon

High energy costs to pump crude oil from the bottom two-thirds of an oil reservoir is one of two main reasons that some of the largest oil wells have been capped and abandoned. Therefore, until recently much of the global proven reserves have lain dormant in so-called ‘ageing’ or ‘spent’ oilfields.

Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) can allow oil companies to resume extraction of crude oil at previously abandoned facilities.

This kind of CCS is a fine way to alleviate greenhouse gas emissions by storing the CO2 deep underground forever — and helping to help bring crude oil to the surface.

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ICO2N Enhanced Oil Recovery – Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage

Recently, and where vast quantities of CO2 are available locally from industry, millions of tons of CO2 gas have already been pumped deep into the underground crude, increasing the volume and raising the overall pressure of the oil reservoir, thereby ‘forcing’ more crude oil to the surface. This is starting to become a common practice in Canada, the U.S.A., and in Saudi Arabia.

More often than not, this process has made economic sense based on it’s own economic merit, but government subsidies have also been employed on and off over the years — on an experimental and case-by-case basis.

So, why isn’t this being done everywhere if it is such a great idea? It turns out that much of the industry-produced CO2 that is available for CCS use is already being used for that purpose. But two factors have (so far) limited more CCS injection for oilfield rejuvenation:

  1. The remote locations of some oilfields can limit the use of industrial CO2 emissions for use, as pipelines to deliver the gasses to capped wells are expensive.
  2. The high energy costs of pumping supercritical (liquified) greenhouse gasses deep underground at high pressure — and pumping the crude oil up the pipe and out through the wellhead

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And… Voila! Just like that, high energy costs are no longer a factor in that equation — thanks to the dramatic fall in solar panel prices over the past 26 months! What?

It’s true! Up ‘till now, the high cost of all kinds of energy have prevented many CCS projects from going forward, as Carbon Capture and Storage requires huge amounts of energy. But solar costs have now dropped so dramatically that free energy from the Sun is being harnessed to inject liquified CO2 deep underground to rejuvenate massive oilfields — while at the same time, sequestering millions of tons of harmful greenhouse gasses.

Semprius Inc. 33.9% efficiency solar panel arrays mounted on Solar Tracker

It’s a win-win for the environment. Some might argue that point. But each year, our civilization is consuming more crude oil producing billions more tons of greenhouse gasses.

“The burning of fossil fuels produces around 21.3 billion tonnes (21.3 gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year, but it is estimated that natural processes can only absorb about half of that amount, so there is a net increase of 10.65 billion tonnes of atmospheric carbon dioxide per year…” — Wikipedia Fossil Fuel

We can continue to allow those gasses to escape unimpeded into the atmosphere, further warming the planet — or we can inject billions of tons of these gasses underground where they will stay for millennia.

The millions of tons of CO2 per year already being injected underground (now) and billions of tons of CO2 per year (in the near future) can only be seen as positive. If only all of the industry-produced CO2 could be so treated! Suddenly, that noble goal seems a lot closer to becoming a reality.

Who could have predicted that the oil industry and the solar industry would become such strong and complementary partners in this great and lofty enterprise?

Highly Recommended CCS articles:

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Green Buildings: A great step in the right direction!

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by John Brian Shannon

Of all of the energy produced and used by humans worldwide, approximately one-third is used for all forms of transportation. This kind of energy is the ‘dirtiest-third’ contributing substantially to total atmospheric emissions when compared to other kinds of energy usage.

Another third of the energy consumed by our civilization is used by industry, which also contributes to atmospheric emission levels — and depending on where you live in the world, the environmental effects of that pollution can range from negligible to toxic.

The last third of energy consumption on the Earth is used for residential and commercial uses. When you turn on the heat, the lights, or look at illuminated signs and streetlights on your way to the air-conditioned shopping mall, these are all examples of residential and commercial energy use.

When we talk about the emissions from the three main kinds of energy users, the question arises; Which of the three can lower emissions at reasonable cost?

Another related question; Is green energy the answer, or is conservation?

It turns out that conservation beats anything else, hands down. No matter how clean your car operates for each mile you drive it — for each mile that you don’t drive it, the car produces zero emissions. The same holds true for cities that shut-off or power-down their streetlights after midnight. No matter how energy-efficient streetlights are these days, they still use less power turned OFF, when compared to turned ON.

Of course, we need energy to live in our modern world – that is a given. But it seems right to reduce wasted energy and one of the most cost-effective ways to do this is to employ conservation AND green energy in our buildings.

Until recent decades, energy wastage for commercial buildings and residential buildings was truly mind-boggling (sometimes much more than 50%) but great progress has been made and continues to be made in the fields of energy conservation and energy-efficient buildings.

Buildings which employ such technologies can become LEED certified if their architects apply for that certification — and the buildings meet the strict criteria, which confers a high level of efficient design and engineering technologies on a building, resulting in low emissions and low energy use. We call this having a Low Environmental Footprint here in North America, while in the UK such buildings have a Zero Net Building status.

Under the leadership of Mayor Vincent C. Gray, Washington, DC, is setting a great example for other cities by rapidly becoming a world leader in clean and green buildings.

The Living Building Challenge is part of numerous efforts by the city to reach Mayor Gray’s “Sustainable D.C.” initiative, which includes 11 key categories for environmental/fiscal improvement. The categories include goals such as cutting the energy consumption [of] the entire city by half, being able to bring in locally grown food within a quarter mile of the city and have it consumed by 75 percent of D.C. residents, as well as triple the number of small businesses within the city. — Carl Pierre, InTheCapital.com

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Renewable Energy Big Pic: Part 1 Including 34 Charts & Graphs — Reblogged from Cleantechnica

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Renewable Energy Big Pic: Part 1 (Including 34 Charts & Graphs)
(via Clean Technica)

As I mentioned in my article covering the latest US Solar Market Insight report (which I just published a few hours ago), I was “out of the office” today giving a presentation on solar power growth. But the presentation was actually on much, much more than that, as you’ll see in the article…

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Renewable Energy Big Pic: Part 2 Including 19 Charts & Graphs — Reblogged from Cleantechnica

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Renewable Energy Big Pic: Part 2 (Including 19 Charts & Graphs) (via Clean Technica)

Continuing on from yesterday’s “Renewable Energy Big Pic” post, here’s Renewable Energy Big Pic: Part 2. As noted yesterday, this two-post series is basically a presentation I gave to a class of renewable energy graduate students this week…

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Bleeding Europe — MY COMMENT

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by John Brian Shannon

In one of Paul Krugman’s latest blogs (which are always great reads) entitled “Bleeding Europe” our favorite Professor takes the side of all the Eurozone nations — except for the one that has to pay the bills – Germany!

Which is fine, because those countries have been beaten up by everyone including, well, everyone. They need as many powerful voices on their side as possible, so that they can continue to run huge deficits forever — and have Germany foot the bill.

And, why not? It’s all Germany’s fault for WWI and WWII, isn’t it? Ergo, they are punishing Germany and it feels good!

The fact is, that all of the people who started both wars are long dead, as are most of the brave soldiers who were told to fight brother Europeans because the politicians of the day on both sides couldn’t get their diplomatic acts together.

But it’s a great relationship while it lasts, isn’t it? Spend like drunken sailors and have Germany’s grand-kids pay for it and if they so much as dare to hint this is a bad deal, then browbeat them with WWII-era propaganda until they stop.

It is not a sustainable relationship — even for the Germany-haters. Why? Because the combined debts and deficits of southern Eurozone nations are so large, soon even Germany won’t be able to cover the losses at the casino and they will all sink into the economic abyss together. (Then it will be; “Hey, South Korea, wanna buy the Eurozone, cheap? Their assets are mortgaged to 200% of their value, but maybe you could kick-start it.”)

It is not a sustainable relationship for 21st-century German taxpayers either, all of whom have nothing to do with WWI or WWII by the way, and are tired of paying for the neighbour’s “no wine is good enough for us” trips to the casino!

But in the end, all of this will come to a crashing halt when German voters have had enough of footing the bill for spendthrift nations who badmouth Germany at every opportunity.

And then watch what happens. Not only will the good ole days of eat, drink and be merry on Germany’s tab be well and truly OVER, the credit-ratings agencies themselves will dictate what kind of budgets countries like Greece are allowed to run. A sudden transition to balanced-budgets would be quite the shocker! If you happen to be visiting southern Europe when that happens — be sure to duck.

I think German Chancellor Angela Merkel is the smartest woman on the planet. For now, she is paying their way, biding her time, no doubt biting her tongue and just waiting for the almost inevitable day that the credit-rating agencies finally take control of overspending Eurozone member-state economies.

If and when that happens she will suddenly be recast as the sweet and gentle fairy-godmother of Europe who convinced her countrymen and women to pay the bills for her free-spending southern neighbours for as long as humanly possible. Sie haben meine Bewunderung, große Dame!

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Why Laurence Kotlikoff sees Economic Meltdown for the U.S.A.

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The fiscal cliff that overhangs Washington, is a legally-binding 600-billion dollar tax increase and spending cut package, which automatically takes effect unless another solution can be found, agreed, signed and enacted by January 1, 2013.

But according to Laurence Kotlikoff, that 600-billion-tax-increase-and-spending-package is a mere drop in the bucket compared to the 222-Trillion-dollar fiscal gap in the U.S. economy – which is also here right now, not in some distant future.

Kotlikoff believes Washington has been running a Ponzi scheme for six decades and higher taxes and belt tightening won’t be enough to stop the coming Greek tragedy.

If U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman is right, the U.S. economy will be side-swiped on January 1st by 600 billion dollars worth of tax increases and spending cuts. While that would certainly shrink the country’s annual budget deficit, most independent observers say it would also push the U.S. far into recession, and maybe take the rest of the world down with it.

Laurence Kotlikoff is an economist at Boston University and the author of several books, including Clash of Generations. He also launched a Presidential run in this last election as the candidate for the advocacy group Americans Elect, but ended his campaign last spring. CBC Radio One – Gord Westmacott

Listen to this fascinating ‘The Current ‘ segment produced by CBC Radio One Gord Westmacott. (Courtesy of CBC) Laurence Kotlikoff: Is the United States Broke?

Some highly-recommended reading to accompany the audio clip:

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America’s Sudden Energy Pivot

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Earlier this year, President Barack Obama sent me a letter outlining the Administration’s energy goals. In it, he laid out his ambitious plans to decrease dependence on foreign oil imports, increase oil and gas exploration and extraction, lower the fuel prices paid by consumers and set historic fuel-efficiency standards for U.S. cars and trucks. Below is a short excerpt of the letter which you can read in full at johnbrianshannon.com

The White House, Washington

March 21, 2012

Dear John:

Thank you for writing.  I appreciate hearing from you, and I share the vision of millions of Americans who want to take control of our Nation’s energy future.  My Administration’s all-of-the-above energy strategy is about developing every source of American energy—a strategy aimed at saving families and businesses money at the pump by reducing our reliance on foreign oil, expanding oil and gas production, and positioning the United States as the global leader in clean energy.

The hard truth is there are no overnight solutions to our energy challenges.  The only way to deal with this problem is through a sustained, serious, all-of-the-above approach.  Under my Administration, American oil production is at its highest level in 8 years, and we are now less reliant on foreign oil than in any of the past 16 years.  We have more working oil and gas rigs than the rest of the world combined, and we have opened up millions of new acres for oil and gas exploration where appropriate and where it can be done safely.  My Administration has also approved dozens of new pipelines to move oil around, including from Canada, which will help create jobs and encourage more energy production.  Thanks to our Nation’s booming oil production, more efficient vehicles, and a world-class refining sector that last year was a net exporter for the first time in 60 years, we cut net imports by 10 percent—or a million barrels a day—in the last year alone.

Only eight months later, on November 12th, the International Energy Agency reported that the United States had suddenly moved from a country historically dependent on foreign oil, to a net exporter. But that is just the beginning. According to the IEA the United States will become the world’s largest oil producer by 2017 — surpassing even Saudi Arabia. Reuters said the IEA annual long-term report surprised top IEA analysts:

“Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond North America – and the energy sector”

“The recent rebound in US oil and gas production, driven by upstream technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale gas resources, is spurring economic activity – with less expensive gas and electricity prices giving industry a competitive edge.”

“The United States, which currently imports around 20 percent of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms – a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries.”

“The Chief Economist for the IEA said the US would far surpass Russia as the world’s largest gas producer by 2015 and become the world’s largest oil producer by 2017.”

Former President George W. Bush was completely right when he declared, “America, is addicted to oil.” Sadly, that has not changed. But instead of staying with the status-quo (perilously dependent on foreign oil) the Obama Administration decided early-on to keep billions of dollars of oil & gas investment, jobs, profits and other related economic activity here for the benefit of North Americans. And that, my friends — is historic change for the better.

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