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Will Global Sustainability Ever Be Possible?

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by John Brian Shannon

If you haven’t seen these two short videos on demographics and sustainability from Professor Hans Rosling take the time to do it now. Hans at his best!

If you prefer to watch video 1 at www.ted.com click here>> “Hans Rosling Shows the Best Stats You’ve Ever Seen”

If you prefer to watch video 2 at http://www.ted.com here>> “Hans Rosling on Global Population Growth”

Bonus video from The Economist: “VideoGraphic: Global Fertility”

Bonus article from The Economist: “Go Forth and Multiply a Lot Less”

John Brian Shannon

John Brian Shannon

ABOUT JOHN BRIAN SHANNON

I write about green energy, sustainable development and economics. My blogs appear in the Arabian Gazette, EcoPoint, EnergyBoom, Huffington Post, United Nations Development Programme, WACSI — and other quality publications.

“It is important to assist all levels of government and the business community to find sustainable ways forward for industry and consumers.”

Green Energy blog: http://johnbrianshannon.com
Economics blog: http://jbsnews.wordpress.com
Twitter: @JBSCanada

 

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On Education, What Would You Do as the British Prime Minister? — MY COMMENT

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This article was published in the New York Times – May 4, 2012 — MY COMMENT follows this short excerpt:

By D.D. GUTTENPLAN
Published: May 4, 2012

“MADRID — With the world economy mired in recession, the British prime minister learns that one of the country’s largest banks is experiencing liquidity problems and is close to collapse. The government has three options: It can publicly bail out the troubled bank, risking widespread panic in the financial sector; it can secretly move to shore it up; or it can leave the bank’s fate to the market. The government’s top economic advisers are divided. Time is running out. The prime minister must decide…”

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MY COMMENT:

The (fictional) government should be fired for limiting itself to these three options!

Either they are incompetent, herd-mentality domesticated farm animals – or they are willfully trying to crash their government whilst taking a swipe at the economy on the way out of political office.

My choice is the obvious choice, which is not mentioned above.

The Prime Minister simply orders a merger with the largest, strongest bank in the country – in a “previously unannounced merger” press conference.

In this scenario, long before the failing bank problems become public, the merger is already announced – thereby preempting any untoward market reaction.

Business blithely carries on across the country, while the larger bank absorbs and then parses their purchase. After some weeks or months, they will no doubt be selling-off those under-performing portions of their newest acquisition.

The government, having arranged the whole deal in the first place would then be able to assess exactly how much “fair compensation” is due the larger bank, for it’s altruistic market behavior. In the form of year-end tax breaks, of course.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/07/world/europe/07ihteduclede07.html?pagewanted=2&tntemail0=y&emc=tnt&pagewanted=all

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The Economist Asks: Does Britain need a fiscal boost? — MY COMMENT

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Just as a matter of principle, the UK should not be running deficits. It is  unconscionable for any 1st world nation, especially one with so many gifts, to NOT spend within it’s means.

Running deficits year in and year out, is the kind of undisciplined behavior we expect from the most primitive undeveloped economies, not the UK, for goodness sakes!

Legislation should be passed in the UK (and independently in all other 1st world nations) banning deficit spending by the federal government except during wartime, or other significant emergencies.

Whether it is affordable or not, is irrelevant as it is simply morally wrong to mismanage, when sound management would suffice.

Mismanage how?

Every pound that is borrowed when in deficit, and then later tacked onto the federal debt of a nation, takes food out of the mouths of the citizens – as each individual pound borrowed carries with it a borrowing cost (compound interest) which, any banker can tell you will end up costing you very many pounds in compound interest.

Which would be almost fine, I suppose, if that interest was staying in the country. But it’s not.

International lenders carry shiploads of money out of the UK and other Western economies every single year in the form of interest paid on government deficits and accumulated deficits (debt) from years and decades gone by.

It is a travesty and it’s immoral to give away the wealth of a nation in slow motion. That money is gone forever.

For now, to solve the immediate problem, the UK as it is sovereign in it’s own currency, should print more than enough money to pay the deficit — PLUS 20% — and that 20% could be used as a stimulus fund on “shovel ready” infrastructure money in the highest unemployment regions of the country.

Instantly, that money would begin working to return the economy to a better place and through taxation (employed people spend more and pay more income-tax) lift the government’s revenues.

Not only would the government save the cost of the compound interest for this year’s deficit, they would receive much of it back through various taxation, further removing stress from the government’s accounts. Let alone continuing to pay interest on it for a decade or two, before finally getting this year’s deficit paid off.

And while they are at it, they should invoke a slight devaluation of the pound, to enhance exports, to further stimulate the economy, adding jobs in the process, which means adding more taxpayers to the government revenue stream.

To read the original article and to vote in the poll, visit:

http://www.economist.com/economist-asks/does-britain-need-fiscal-boost

Follow John Brian Shannon on Twitter: https://twitter.com/@JBSCanada

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Europe’s Economic Suicide by Paul Krugman — MY COMMENT

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The Euro was doomed to failure from the start IF all of Europe did not convert to the Euro early on. Having a centralized currency in some parts of Europe while national currencies operate in other parts of Europe (operating together and against each other) in some jurisdictions is unworkable.

It would be the equivalent of having an Eastern U.S. dollar and a Western dollar in the U.S.A.

Obviously, both regional currencies would trade at a different value and compete against each other with the goal of defeating the competing currency. Effectively, one region of the U.S. would be at economic war with another region of the U.S.!

Currency speculators worldwide would be quick to make that opportunity work for them – regardless of the economic consequences to either region!

Which is exactly what has been happening to Europe since 2000 and to think otherwise is to be looking through the wrong end of the telescope.

The quiet, almost polite, currency/economic war raging in Europe over the past decade increased unemployment, lowered profits, decreased confidence domestically and abroad and charted an erratic path for the often different national economic systems there.

This wound in the very fabric of Europe won’t heal until the decision is made to either drop the Euro completely – or the European nations embrace one currency.

If that decision is deferred much longer, Europe will continue to lose economic power, until there is complete and utter economic failure there.

To read Professor Paul Krugman – visit:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/16/opinion/krugman-europes-economic-suicide.html?_r=1#comments

Follow me on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/@JBSCanada

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The Austerity Debacle — MY COMMENT

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My comment on an article in the New York Times

By 

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/30/opinion/krugman-the-austerity-debacle.html?ref=opinion

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While Professor Krugman’s points are well-taken, there would be no need for austerity programs were there no outrageous federal government deficits in the U.S.A. and Europe.

Nor would billions of dollars have been funneled out of those economies – dollars which are now flowing out of those nations at exponential rates just to pay interest on reckless government deficits and accumulated debt.

Nor would governments have needed to lay off millions of government workers over the decades – workers whose governments could no longer afford to pay them, because revenues were earmarked for interest payments on debt!

All of these nations should adopt balanced budget legislation so that instead of paying multi-billions in interest every year to foreign lenders, gov’t revenue goes towards creating national infrastructure jobs for citizens.

Realistically, it may take 7 years to get to the point of balanced budget status in the U.S..

After that, a constitutional amendment requiring an orderly pay-down of federal debt spread over 25 years should begin.

The only real weakness of democratic systems everywhere appears to be that over the decades, politicians can’t resist spending taxpayer money to the extent they have almost bankrupted their own nations.

This is not a reason to adopt the statist model or even ‘managed democracy’ – all we need are checks and balances to manage the spending of elected politicians – who, for all their gifts, are not world-class economists.

johnbrianshannon@gmail.com

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The following information is courtesy of: brillig.com/debt_clock/ where there is everything you ever wanted to know about U.S. federal government deficits and debt.

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK

The Outstanding Public Debt as of 30 Jan 2012 at 06:48:44 AM GMT is:

$ 1 5 , 2 4 9 , 4 9 7 , 2 6 5 , 5 4 0 . 6 0

The estimated population of the United States is 312,131,534
so each citizen’s share of this debt is $48,856.00.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$3.94 billion per day since September 28, 2007!
Concerned? Then tell Congress and the White House!

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The Economist online — Watts Next? — MY COMMENT

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My response to an article published in The Economist online

January 25, 2012

What will be fueling the world in 2030?

“THE world will consume 40% more energy in 2030 than it does today, according to BP’s World Energy Outlook, though the rate of growth will decrease…”

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/01/energy

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On sustainability front-runners:

Germany, Spain and Argentina are getting close to 25% of their electricity from solar, wind, geothermal and hydro power. It’s a safe bet that within five years, those targets will be met or exceeded.

On top of all that, Germany is shutting down it’s entire nuclear power industry by 2022 and is ahead of schedule there too. (They’re German’s after all!)

A new industry is taking hold in Germany, the UK and in other European countries – pure vegetable oil is being used to fuel (formerly) diesel cars and trucks.

It’s NOT bio-diesel as there is no petroleum diesel mixed into the veg oil fuel. Bio-diesel is a different product altogether, but IS available there as an optional fuel. (minor alterations are needed to the vehicle in order to use each different kind of fuel)

See: http://www.vegoilmotoring.com/eng/

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On German environmental law:

“The 2012 EEG sets a minimum requirement of not less than 35 percent of renewable energy in electricity supply by 2020, not less than 50 percent by 2030, not less than 65 percent by 2040 and not less than 80 percent by 2050.

However, the law actually sets a target of between 35 and 40 percent of supply within the next decade. This conforms to a decision made by the Ministry of Environment in 2010. Rather than reducing its commitment to expanding renewable energy, Germany has codified a more aggressive target than in the previous law.”

This quote is from:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/07/germany-pas

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At the same time as all the above is occurring:

The UK has already dropped it’s feed-in tariff for sustainable electricity. Germany is lowering theirs twice within a 12-month period.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/20/solar-panel-price-drop

It’s a simple equation, solar panel prices have dropped dramatically in the past 24 months, which is why Solyndra (and others) failed.

In 2011, China passed both the U.S. and Germany as the world’s largest manufacturers of solar panels and wind turbines.

Here’s a basic, but excellent link for you:
http://cleantechnica.com/2011/12/30/german-solar-power-production-surges…

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On conventional nuclear power:

Many nuclear plants are getting close to the end of their lifetime. It is often less expensive to build new, state of the art nuclear plants – than to refurbish or renovate old plants to meet modern standards – as the Japanese are now finding out.

A majority of Japan’s 54 nuclear plants are shut down for inspection since the Fukushima disaster. Japan has just inked a deal with Saudi Arabia to purchase more oil to make up for the loss of all that nuclear power generation. How much more oil? THREE TIMES Japan’s total 2010 oil imports from all sources!

See: http://arabnews.com/saudiarabia/article560501.ece

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On ‘Modular” nuclear power:

To help you get up to speed in the modern nuclear power age, here is some general info.

Old, large nuclear plants all over the world, are nearing the end of their (safe) lifetime. They need to be decommissioned as soon as time and circumstance allows. Germany is decommissioning all their plants by 2022. Japan has shut down most of it’s 54 nuclear plants – a few may restart if, after rigorous inspections they are deemed safe enough.

The trend now is towards much higher safety and security standards and much smaller nuclear power plants – so called ‘modular’ nuclear power.

Here’s a great link for modular N-power:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2012/01/20/feds-to-finance-small-…

If you need more info on this use keywords “modular, nuclear, power” on Google, plenty of info there.

Modern and safe, modular nuclear is the perfect partner for solar and wind power – as N-power can quickly ramp up to meet demand (at sundown) or when wind speeds suddenly drop. Nuclear does this far better than any other electrical grid partner.

The sore point with nuclear for decades – apart from old, obsolete N-plants has been ‘spent’ fuel rods. Some types of fuel rods require secure storage facilities and continuous cooling for 20,000 years(!) which significantly add to the cost of nuclear power.

Those old rods are hot and can become very dangerous if allowed to come into contact with the atmosphere, or if mis-handled in any way. Terrorist incidents are always a danger with both nuclear plants and long-term storage facilities, again, adding to the overall cost of nuclear.

Yet, there is a solution if the option is chosen. France’s nuclear power plants can ‘burn’ our ‘spent’ rods and eventually render them into a low radioactive state and France can store those (almost) fully-spent rods. The cost to dispose of N-rods in this way are much lower than 20,000-year storage.

Safe transport to France is imperative.

What I have outlined above is not the entire solution to all of our electrical power generation requirements, but can be considered huge steps in the right direction.

We need voices on this to make it happen.

Very Best Regards, johnbrianshannon.com

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God Blast Our Queen! – by Daniel Alexandre Portoraro — MY COMMENT

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My comment on an article by Daniel Alexandre Portoraro

Featured in The Huffington Post – Canada edition

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/daniel-alexandre-portoraro/canada-monarchy_b_1186390.html?ref=canada

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Everyone is certainly entitled to their point of view.

I for one, am proud to be a citizen of a country which, since it’s founding has promoted democratic rights and freedoms for individual­s. We inherited much from the founding nations of Canada – Great Britain and France. Our “Father” and “Mother” if you will allow me use of the expression­.

Our entire legal system is a carefully crafted mix of British criminal law and French ‘tort’ or civil law. We simply couldn’t have successful­ly made the transition to a modern nation-sta­te without the benevolent assistance of our founding nations – of which our Monarchy was and remains a part.

Because we don’t depend on either country (or the Monarchy) on a day-to-day basis anymore (quite unlike our early days) should we speak abusively of them and try to minimize their many contributi­ons?

Just because your Mother is getting old and you no longer need her assistance daily, should you just toss her into the nearest dumpster on your way to work?

Ungrateful in the extreme.

For those who think we should drop the Royal Family on account of every country on Earth having ‘blood on it’s hands’ (including Great Britain) if you go back far enough: Should we drop trade with Japan or Germany on account of WWll? Seriously? Do you agree with everything the U.S.A. has done? Should we drop trade and relationships with them on account of Vietnam, the Spanish-American war, Iraq, etc? How about other countries with blood on their hands? That would be all the countries, by the way.

Apparently, the Monarchy costs each Canadian $1.53 per year. Wow, $1.53! The Queen and many of the Royals are our biggest boosters and look for opportunities to promote our national interests. Why? Because we are part of a family – the Commonwealth. Our success is their success!

I wish the government would commission a cost benefit analysis, once-per-decade, showing the Monarchy’s net contribution to Canada and not just in dollar terms – although that would also compare very favourably. You’d be surprised!

Finally, for those who admire the republican model of government, the U.S. beckons. We wish you well! Bon voyage!

johnbrianshannon@gmail.com

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