BP Energy Outlook 2035 and Royal Dutch Shell ‘New Lens Scenario’ download PDF’s

BP Energy Outlook 2035 and Royal Dutch Shell ‘New Lens Scenario’ PDF’s | 17/01/14
by John Brian Shannon John Brian Shannon

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BP Energy Outlook downloads

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The BP Energy Outlook 2035 – contains our projections of long-term energy trends

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Energy Outlook 2035 (by country or region)

Background papers

BP Energy Outlook sees 2035 Emissions Increasing by 29%

by Joshua S Hill

BP Energy released their BP Energy Outlook 2035 on Wednesday, outlining global energy demand predictions for the coming decades, as well as showing that global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to grow by 29% by 2035.

BP Energy Outlook predicts emissions will increase 29% from present levels, by 2035
BP Energy Outlook predicts emissions will increase 29% from present levels, by 2035. Image by Shutterstock

According to the report, global energy demand continues to grow, but is looking to slow soon, as the current growth is primarily being driven by emerging economies, such as China and India.

The report predicts that global energy consumption is expected to grow by 41% between 2012 and 2035, compared to 55% over the last 23 years, and 30% over the last ten. Of the 41% expected over the next 23 years, 95% is expected to come from emerging economies, whereas energy use in the advanced economies of North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region, is expected to grow relatively slowly.

Bob Dudley, BP Group Chief Executive commented:

“The Outlook leads us to three big questions:
Is there enough energy to meet growing demand?
Can we meet demand reliably?
And what are the consequences of meeting demand?

In other words, is the supply sufficient, secure and sustainable?

On the first question, our answer is a resounding ‘yes’.

The growth rate for global demand is slower than what we have seen in previous decades, largely as a result of increasing energy efficiency.

Trends in global technology, investment and policy leave us confident that production will be able to keep pace.

New energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil, and renewables will account for a significant share of the growth in global supply.”

In regards to carbon dioxide emissions, BP are predicting a rise of 29% over the next 23 years, with all of that growth coming from emerging economies.

The Outlook does provide some bright spots, however, suggesting that emissions growth is expected to slow as natural gas and renewables start to replace coal and oil, while emissions are expected to decline in Europe and the US.

“This process shows the power of economic forces and competition,” said BP Chief Economist Christof Rühl.

Put simply, people are finding ways to use energy more efficiently because it saves them money.

This is also good for the environment – the less energy we use the less carbon we emit. For example CO2 emissions in the US are back at 1990s’ levels.”

The full summary of the Outlook can be viewed here, as well as access to remarks by Bob Dudley, and presentation slides.

This article, BP Energy Outlook Predict Emissions To Soar 29% By 2030, is syndicated from Clean Technica and is posted here with permission.

About the Author

Joshua S HillJoshua S Hill I’m a Christian, a nerd, a geek, a liberal left-winger, and believe that we’re pretty quickly directing planet-Earth into hell in a handbasket! I work as Associate Editor for the Important Media Network and write for CleanTechnica and Planetsave. I also write for Fantasy Book Review (.co.uk), Amazing Stories, the Stabley Times and Medium.   I love words with a passion, both creating them and reading them.

With plastics made from waste CO2, who needs tar sands oil?

by Tina Casey.

The company NewLight Technologies first came across our radar last year, when it announced a system for making plastic (almost) out of thin air. Instead of using petroleum, the feedstock is the airborne carbon emitted by sewage treatment plants, landfills, power plants, and other industrial sites, so in addition to reducing the need for petroleum, the system also captures and recycles greenhouse gas emissions.

How’s that for a nice sustainability twofer? Now that NewLight Technologies is a star – just last month it made headlines in USAToday – let’s see what they’re up to now.

Plastic bowls (cropped) by mmaier.
Plastic bowls (cropped) by mmaier.

Carbon Capture For Plastic Products.

When we first met NewLight Technologies the company was using the name AirFlex for the plastic produced by its carbon capture system, which now goes by the name AirCarbon™.

According to NewLight, AirCarbon™ is the performance equivalent of a range of plastics that includes polypropylene, polyethylene, and polystyrene.

AirCarbon also lends itself to various manufacturing processes including extrusion, blown film, fiber spinning, and injection molding.

To top it off, AirCarbon plastic is biodegradable and recyclable, and to top that off, Newlight cites a third party verified cradle-to-grave analysis demonstrating that AirCarbon is a carbon-negative material:

AirCarbonTM is an independently-verified, cradle-to-grave (including all energy inputs, transportation, and end-of-life) carbon-negative material, quantifiably reducing the amount of carbon in the air in every ounce of AirCarbon we make.

Turning Greenhouse Gases Into Plastic.

The NewLight system took years of hard slogging to develop but the basics are relatively simple. Emissions are funneled into a  patented conversion reactor and carbon and oxygen are separated out, then reassembled into long chains of molecules called polymers, aka plastic.

If this starts ringing some bells, you might be thinking of our old friends over at LanzaTech. Back in 2010 the company announced a system for making plastic with waste gas from industrial sites and other sources, and just last fall it won a $4 million Department of Energy grant to scale up its system.

Both LanzaTech and NewLight have caught the eye of sustainability leader Virgin. LanzaTech has teamed with Virgin Atlantic to capture waste gas for jet fuel, and according to USA Today  NewLight expects to pair with Virgin Mobile for making cell phone cases.

Meanwhile, the Wisconsin institutional furniture products company KI, which has a soup-to-nuts sustainability focus of its own, will also be among the first US companies to incorporate AirCarbon into its products.

Keystone XL Who?

Getting back to that tar sands oil thing, not too long ago President Obama said that approval of the Keystone XL tar sands oil pipeline would be contingent on its benefit to the US.

As the approval process winds up to a climax, it would be helpful to keep in mind the contrast between a process that helps manufacturers and other US businesses monetize their waste while reducing harmful airborne pollutants, and a massive new piece of fossil fuel infrastructure that imposes new risks on existing communities while creating just a handful of permanent jobs.

Psst, wanna keep up with all the latest clean tech news from CleanTechnica? Subscribe to our newsletter.

This article, Who Needs Tar Sands Oil When We Have AirCarbon?, is syndicated from Clean Technica and is posted here with permission.

About the Author

Tina CaseyTina Casey specializes in military and corporate sustainability, advanced technology, emerging materials, biofuels, and water and wastewater issues. Tina’s articles are reposted frequently on Reuters, Scientific American, and many other sites. You can also follow her on Twitter @TinaMCasey and Google+.

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Walmart, Exxon, BP, and 25 Other Companies Put A Price On Carbon

by Guest Contributor Jeff Spross

Image Credit: Walmart image via vvoe / Shutterstock.com

Originally published on Climate Progress.

It turns out the White House and major American businesses may be converging on how to assess the damage greenhouse gas emissions do to the global climate.

According to a new report by the environmental data company CDP, in 2013 at least 29 companies either based or operating in the United States factored a price on carbon into their long-term business planning. And in 2010, the Obama Administration released the government’s estimates for that same price, to be used as a factor in rulemaking decisions by federal agencies.

The global warming driven by human-caused carbon emissions will come various results, including droughts, floods, heat waves, shifting weather patterns, stronger storms, disrupted food supplies and rising seas. The purpose of the price in both instances is to quantify the economic costs of those effects.

Significantly, the companies using an internal carbon price include the five oil giants — ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, BP, and Shell — along with other notables like Google, Microsoft, General Electric, Walt Disney, Wells Fargo, DuPont, and Delta Air Lines.

The specific prices they estimated were also striking: $40 per ton of carbon emissions for BP; $60 for ExxonMobil, and $40 for Shell. Xcel Energy pegged it at $20, Walt Disney at $10 to $20, and ConocoPhillips’ estimate ran anywhere from $8 to $46 depending on various factors. The U.S. government’s midline estimates were $37 and $57 for 2015. CDP also reviewed the carbon prices already in place in other countries around the world, which generally fell into the same range — and in a few instances much lower and higher.

Currently, the United States does not put any price on carbon. The International Monetary Fund estimates that failure effectively subsidizes fossil fuels to the tune of $502 billion annually — the biggest of any country in the world. The result is a massive market distortion, because the costs of climate change are not being factored into the daily decisions and transactions of everyone in the economy. The most direct way to place a price on carbon is either a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade system like the one Congress considered in 2009 and then abandoned. But the regulations to cut carbon emissions from power plants would implicitly, if not directly, place a price on those emissions as well.

Of course, the businesses’ use of an internal carbon price is an act of self-interest rather than advocacy. CMS Energy Corporation, for instance, noted it factored into its decision to start up a natural gas power plant, and to begin shuttering several coal-fired ones. And the CDP report quotes many of the companies emphasizing the price’s use as a guide in investment and other decisions.

“It’s climate change as a line item,” Tom Carnac, North American president of CDP, told the New York Times. “They’re looking at it from a rational perspective, making a profit. It drives internal decision-making.”

Publicly, some of these companies — ExxonMobil in particular — have been long-time skeptics of climate change, and have financially supported efforts to beat back the policies aimed at addressing it. Many of those companies are also regular contributors to the Republican party, which opposes efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions and has sought to derail the White House’s carbon price. Consequently, many observers on both sides of the issue see the companies’ internal use of a carbon price as a significant break between business’ practical self-interest and the ideological position of the GOP and its conservative supporters — a sign the concrete financial infrastructure that supports opposition to climate policy is simply tiring out.

Across the financial world, there’s growing concern that massive amounts of money are invested in fossil fuel reserves that can never be exploited. Bloomberg LP recently released a financial tool to help investors calculate their carbon risk, while movements across the United States and other countries are pushing institutions to disentangle themselves from fossil fuel production. Various carbon-pricing mechanisms are already operating in numerous countries, and the growth of renewable energy continues to rocket upwards. In other words, the need to account for carbon emissions’ climate damage is no longer seen as a mere internal question of government policy — it’s taking on a collective life of its own.

Being hard-nosed business leaders, Exxon Mobil, BP, Google, and all the rest of them are simply acknowledging that reality.

This article, Walmart, Exxon, BP, Walt Disney, & 25 Other Top Companies Put A Price On Global Warming Pollution, is syndicated from Clean Technica and is posted here with permission.

2013 CO2 Emissions Will Set Record High

by Guest Contributor Ari Phillips.

Coal power plant via Shutterstock
Coal power plant via Shutterstock.

Originally published on Climate Progress.

Global emissions of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels are set to rise again in 2013, reaching a record high of 36 billion tons. According to a report released Monday by the Global Carbon Project, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production increased by 2.1 percent in 2012, with a total of nearly 10 billion tons of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere, 60 percent above 1990 emissions. Emissions are projected to increase by a further 2.1 percent in 2013.

The projected 2.1 percent rise over 2012 figures “is not a surprise at all,” Roisin Moriarty, a research scientist with the Global Carbon Project at the University of East Anglia’s Tyndall Center for Climate Research, told NBC News. In fact, “it is a little lower than the value we predicted last year — 2.6 percent.”

Moriarty attributed the slowdown almost entirely to slower economic growth in China, saying it’s nothing to celebrate.

According to a statement released with the study, most emissions are from coal (43 percent), then oil (33 percent), gas (18 percent), cement (5.3 percent) and gas flaring (0.6 percent). The growth in coal in 2012 accounted for 54 percent of the growth in fossil fuel emissions.

The U.S. reduced emissions by 3.7 percent in 2012, while the E.U. made cuts of 1.3 percent. India and China are leading the way on emissions growth, increasing emissions by 7.7 percent and 5.9 percent respectively.

CO2 emissions from deforestation and other land-use change added eight percent to the emissions from burning fossil fuels.

Cumulative emissions of CO2 since 1870 are set to reach 2015 billion tons in 2013, with 70 percent caused by burning fossil fuels and 30 percent from deforestation and other land-use changes, according to the study.

In a statement, Dr. Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter said, “We have exhausted about 70 percent of the cumulative emissions that keep global climate change likely below two degrees. In terms of CO2 emissions, we are following the highest climate change scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in September.”

The highest climate change scenario sets the world on track for catastrophic warming of 3.2-5.4C (5.8-9.7F) by 2100.

Dr. Michael Raupach at CSIRO and an author on the report told The Conversation that the findings are “absolutely frightening.”

Raupach estimated that we have 30 years before the entire world has to stop emitting carbon “cold turkey.”

“If we want to meet the target it will mean rapid decreases from now of several percent per year until we get down to one third of current emissions in 30 years time. Then we’ve still got some of our quota left to use for carbon emissions we can’t avoid,” he said.

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This article, 2013 CO2 Emissions Will Set Record High, is syndicated from Clean Technica and is posted here with permission.

About the Author

Guest Contributor is many, many people all at once. In other words, we publish a number of guest posts from experts in a large variety of fields. This is our contributor account for those special people. 😀

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