Royal Dutch Shell ‘New Lens Scenarios’ Energy downloads
Shell has been developing scenarios to explore the future since the early 1970s. Scenarios are stories that consider “what if?” questions.
Whereas forecasts focus on probabilities, scenarios consider a range of plausible futures and how these could emerge from the realities of today. They recognise that people hold beliefs and make choices that lead to outcomes.
Our scenarios team considers changes such as in the global economic environment, geopolitics, resource stresses such as water, greenhouse gases, and energy supply and demand to help business leaders make better decisions.
BP Energy released their BP Energy Outlook 2035on Wednesday, outlining global energy demand predictions for the coming decades, as well as showing that global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to grow by 29% by 2035.
According to the report, global energy demand continues to grow, but is looking to slow soon, as the current growth is primarily being driven by emerging economies, such as China and India.
The report predicts that global energy consumption is expected to grow by 41% between 2012 and 2035, compared to 55% over the last 23 years, and 30% over the last ten. Of the 41% expected over the next 23 years, 95% is expected to come from emerging economies, whereas energy use in the advanced economies of North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region, is expected to grow relatively slowly.
Bob Dudley, BP Group Chief Executive commented:
“The Outlook leads us to three big questions:
Is there enough energy to meet growing demand?
Can we meet demand reliably?
And what are the consequences of meeting demand?
In other words, is the supply sufficient, secure and sustainable?
On the first question, our answer is a resounding ‘yes’.
The growth rate for global demand is slower than what we have seen in previous decades, largely as a result of increasing energy efficiency.
Trends in global technology, investment and policy leave us confident that production will be able to keep pace.
New energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil, and renewables will account for a significant share of the growth in global supply.”
In regards to carbon dioxide emissions, BP are predicting a rise of 29% over the next 23 years, with all of that growth coming from emerging economies.
The Outlook does provide some bright spots, however, suggesting that emissions growth is expected to slow as natural gas and renewables start to replace coal and oil, while emissions are expected to decline in Europe and the US.
“This process shows the power of economic forces and competition,” said BP Chief Economist Christof Rühl.
Put simply, people are finding ways to use energy more efficiently because it saves them money.
This is also good for the environment – the less energy we use the less carbon we emit. For example CO2 emissions in the US are back at 1990s’ levels.”
Joshua S Hill I’m a Christian, a nerd, a geek, a liberal left-winger, and believe that we’re pretty quickly directing planet-Earth into hell in a handbasket! I work as Associate Editor for the Important Media Network and write for CleanTechnica and Planetsave. I also write for Fantasy Book Review (.co.uk), Amazing Stories, the Stabley Times and Medium. I love words with a passion, both creating them and reading them.