BP Energy Outlook sees 2035 Emissions Increasing by 29%

by Joshua S Hill

BP Energy released their BP Energy Outlook 2035 on Wednesday, outlining global energy demand predictions for the coming decades, as well as showing that global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to grow by 29% by 2035.

BP Energy Outlook predicts emissions will increase 29% from present levels, by 2035
BP Energy Outlook predicts emissions will increase 29% from present levels, by 2035. Image by Shutterstock

According to the report, global energy demand continues to grow, but is looking to slow soon, as the current growth is primarily being driven by emerging economies, such as China and India.

The report predicts that global energy consumption is expected to grow by 41% between 2012 and 2035, compared to 55% over the last 23 years, and 30% over the last ten. Of the 41% expected over the next 23 years, 95% is expected to come from emerging economies, whereas energy use in the advanced economies of North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region, is expected to grow relatively slowly.

Bob Dudley, BP Group Chief Executive commented:

“The Outlook leads us to three big questions:
Is there enough energy to meet growing demand?
Can we meet demand reliably?
And what are the consequences of meeting demand?

In other words, is the supply sufficient, secure and sustainable?

On the first question, our answer is a resounding ‘yes’.

The growth rate for global demand is slower than what we have seen in previous decades, largely as a result of increasing energy efficiency.

Trends in global technology, investment and policy leave us confident that production will be able to keep pace.

New energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil, and renewables will account for a significant share of the growth in global supply.”

In regards to carbon dioxide emissions, BP are predicting a rise of 29% over the next 23 years, with all of that growth coming from emerging economies.

The Outlook does provide some bright spots, however, suggesting that emissions growth is expected to slow as natural gas and renewables start to replace coal and oil, while emissions are expected to decline in Europe and the US.

“This process shows the power of economic forces and competition,” said BP Chief Economist Christof Rühl.

Put simply, people are finding ways to use energy more efficiently because it saves them money.

This is also good for the environment – the less energy we use the less carbon we emit. For example CO2 emissions in the US are back at 1990s’ levels.”

The full summary of the Outlook can be viewed here, as well as access to remarks by Bob Dudley, and presentation slides.

This article, BP Energy Outlook Predict Emissions To Soar 29% By 2030, is syndicated from Clean Technica and is posted here with permission.

About the Author

Joshua S HillJoshua S Hill I’m a Christian, a nerd, a geek, a liberal left-winger, and believe that we’re pretty quickly directing planet-Earth into hell in a handbasket! I work as Associate Editor for the Important Media Network and write for CleanTechnica and Planetsave. I also write for Fantasy Book Review (.co.uk), Amazing Stories, the Stabley Times and Medium.   I love words with a passion, both creating them and reading them.

How Change Manifests, How Action To Stop Global Warming Must Come About

by Cynthia Shahan

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earth globe
Image Credit: Grassy Earth via Shutterstock

There is just something about brevity. A recent episode of David Biello’s Scientific American podcast Sixty Second Earth cuts to the chase of how change manifests, and how to most effectively tackle the global warming crisis: by local action. Here’s a transcript of part of the Sixty Second Earth podcast:

It’s obvious. Global efforts to combat climate change have failed. International summits are full of hot air and greenhouse gas pollution continues to rise. If a country bails on a climate commitment, they pay a price of, well, zero.

Turns out that’s okay, at least according to game theory analyses by researchers at the University of Lisbon. Their models suggest that punishment by global institutions has no effect. They also say that global summits actually impede cooperation.

Now, in a new report, the researchers suggest that if punishment starts getting handed out at the local level, say city governments, what emerges is a much more cooperative global regime for combating climate change.

Interestingly, though, the local actors must be stimulated by an understanding that global warming means catastrophe… big time. Thus, the remarkable bottom line to change is essentially an old bumper sticker tagline (link added):

Nevertheless, the math of how people play games suggests that successfully curbing carbon pollution will rely on the old adage: think globally… act locally.

The journal Nature Climate Change describes how that proverbial pond inspires change with many ripples from within — it is the rippling of change (link added):

We show that a bottom-up approach, in which parties create local institutions that punish free-riders, promotes the emergence of widespread cooperation, mostly when risk perception is low, as it is at present3, 7. On the contrary, global institutions provide, at best, marginal improvements regarding overall cooperation. Our results clearly suggest that a polycentric approach involving multiple institutions is more effective than that associated with a single, global one, indicating that such a bottom-up, self-organization approach, set up at a local scale, provides a better ground on which to attempt a solution for such a complex and global dilemma.

Another international climate conference is coming up, this one being held in Poland. There isn’t much optimism regarding what is to come out of this, and it seems there’s no reason for optimism. What is needed is a stronger focus on creating action on the local level. What is needed is an emphasis on communicating the great risks and costs that come with global warming, while showing people local solutions that they can implement in their cities. People are starting to realize this, but the message needs to get out to more and more of us, especially the ones who are motivated and assertive enough to push for meaningful change.

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This article, How Change Manifests, How Action To Stop Global Warming Must Come About, is syndicated from Clean Technica and is posted here with permission.

About the Author

Cynthia Shahan is an Organic Farmer, Classical Homeopath, Art Teacher, Creative Writer, Anthropologist, Natural Medicine Activist, Journalist, and mother of four unconditionally loving spirits, teachers, and environmentally conscious beings who have lit the way for me for decades.