Excerpt of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s WEF speech this morning in New Delhi

by John Brian Shannon
Here is a short excerpt of the speech the Prime Minister of Canada, the Right Honourable Stephen Harper delivered at the World Economic Forum, November 7, 2012 in New Delhi, India:

[“It is also a pleasure to be back at the World Economic Forum, a place where a great many people who want to make a difference regularly come to meet.

“And I am delighted to see that you have also chosen to be in India, a place where globally important decisions are increasingly being made.

“Almost a year ago, during your last Davos gathering, I highlighted some of Canada’s economic strengths and challenges.

“On the former, on the strongest, Canadian banks remain the soundest in the world.

“The World Economic Forum is one of several organizations that says so.

“Canada’s net debt-to-GDP ratio remains the lowest in the G-7, and the lowest by far.

“Thus Canada’s top credit rating has been reaffirmed by all of the major rating agencies.

“Among G-7 countries, Canada now has the lowest overall tax rate on new business investment.

“Canada also possesses a diverse yet harmonious society, with public institutions and a public service noted for professionalism and integrity.

“All of these assets, as Borge mentioned, and others have helped Canada better weather and better recover from the global recession.

“Indeed, despite the uncertainty of the times, the Canadian economy has now added more than eight hundred thousand net new jobs since July 2009.

“Still, we remain acutely aware of the difficult global trends, especially for many developed countries.

“As I said to the World Economic Forum in January, many countries with which Canada is traditionally aligned continue to be weighed down by debts they cannot seem to control, by entitlements they can no longer afford and by growth which threatens to remain sluggish for the foreseeable future.

“As I said in January, it is high time we realize that:

“The wealth of western economies is no more inevitable than the poverty of emerging ones.”

“As these last four years have revealed, the wealth we enjoy today in the West is not inevitable.

“Our standard of living will be based on – and will be based only on – strong, growth-orientated policies and on getting the hard choices right.

“That is why, over the past year, the Government of Canada has committed itself to a series of determined actions, we want to help ensure that growth, job creation and economic prosperity will be there for Canadians over the long term.]

End excerpt.

This information was provided by the Prime Minister’s office (Official News Feed, November 7, 2012)

JOHN BRIAN SHANNON

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Last Chance for the U.S. Economy!

by John Brian Shannon

This blog examines Canada‘s debt and deficit-cutting success of the 1990’s and early 2000’s which improved Canada’s credit rating, lowered borrowing costs for the government and when combined with a new 7% nation-wide Goods and Services tax (1990) allowed many job-creation projects to be funded which lessened the blow of the government’s (then) austerity program.

Read “How Canada Cut Its Deficits and Debt” — by former Prime Minister of Canada Paul Martin (prior to that he was Finance Minister) who famously took Canada from second-worst among the G-7 countries to the most stable economic performer in only a few short years. The above link takes you to a downloadable PDF document. It is a must-read for students of macroeconomics.

Paul Martin, 21st Prime Minister of Canada
Paul Martin, 21st Prime Minister of Canada (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Fiscal Turnaround

“When the Liberal Party took office, Canada’s deficit and debt were by far the worst among the G-7 but for one, and our level of foreign debt was the highest of the industrial world. Indeed, the Wall Street Journal had publicly dubbed Canada all but bankrupt. Four years later, our debt-to-GDP ratio was dropping like a stone. Our financial record was second to none and Canada’s deficit was no more.” — Paul Martin quote in The Magazine of International Economic Policy — The International Economy.

Many American friends of mine, are asking how the U.S. can solve its massive U.S. deficit and debt problems — problems which seem almost as insurmountable as going to the Moon was viewed in the early 1960’s.

The fact is, these problems have been solved in Canada and they can be solved in the United States. What has been lacking up until now, has been the will to act. Once elected, leaders who are empowered by their electorate to slay the twin dragons of debt and deficit could do so relatively quickly.

Some final advice from the Right Honourable Paul Martin former Prime Minister of Canada, the man most directly responsible for solving Canada’s historic debt and toxic deficit problem.

“The final lesson I would draw is that if deficit reduction is to be a priority, then it has to be a “national” priority.

When Canada’s debt ratio hit 70 percent, it was assumed by most economists that we had crossed the tipping point. The United States is there now, and the IMF projects that within eight years it will hit 115 percent. [!]

These are serious numbers, and yet the so-called deficit debate in the United States is not about the deficit at all. It’s about winners and losers.

One thing to remember from the Canadian experience it is that for deficit cleansing to succeed, there can be no winners while most people are losing. If deficit reduction is to gain public support, it requires a united effort—in other words, it must be a truly national exercise.” — Paul Martin quote in The Magazine of International Economic Policy — The International Economy.

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JOHN BRIAN SHANNON

To follow John Brian Shannon on social media – place a check-mark beside your choice of Facebook, Twitter or LinkedIn: FullyFollowMe/johnbrianshannon

Will the Collapse of the Western Manufacturing Base Create a Worldwide Depression?

by John Brian Shannon

The Eastern economies have traditionally been the manufacturers and purchasers of downmarket goods in their own region, while Western economies have traditionally been the manufacturers and purchasers of upmarket goods in their particular region.

Over the past 40 years Asia has taken much of the West’s upmarket manufacturing base, so much so, that the West has lost fully 50% of the manufacturing jobs it once enjoyed previous to 1980. That is the single most important reason why there is significant unemployment, under-employment and worryingly, under-reported unemployment (people who no longer look for work) stats in the Western economies.

Which obviously leaves a big hole in the economy of the West, translating into lower Western economic performance and recessions in North America, Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand since the 1970’s.

The fact that many Western corporations are making huge amounts of money at this (outsourcing their manufacturing to Asia – resulting in better corporate profits due to the much lower labour rates there) is now a complete side-issue.

It has now come down to this; The once broad base of Western consumers with generous amounts of disposable income is changing to an ever-broadening base of Western consumers without much disposable income.

If things continue, soon it will impact the Eastern economies — as there won’t be enough people in the West with enough disposable income to afford much of those upmarket goods and services! Translating into reduced economic performance there.

For now, China and India are the only significant economies in the entire world which maintain a healthy growth rate. They have been the economic engines of the world since 1998. Here in the West, we have suffered two recessions since then — and that, with China and India firing on all cylinders and their admirable growth rates of at least 8% per year and sometimes much higher than that.

The U.S. growth rate was an anemic 2% last year and is expected to come in at 1.5% to 1.6% next year. The U.S has not seen any growth rate over 4% since the 1980’s. Europe and Canada have posted similar percentages over that same time-frame.

If demand for Eastern-produced goods slackens any further in the West, the Eastern economies will see recession too. At that point, with the West still mired in the fog of recession — the entire world economy will tailspin resulting in a worldwide depression. This is the fear of many economists — including economists in Asia.

Which is why I favour keeping some significant amount of manufacturing here in the West, as manufacturing produces (relatively speaking) a lot of jobs — while removing resources from the ground and shipping them to Asia produces relatively few jobs.

Oil refineries here cost 12 – 13 billion dollars, while in China they cost 1 billion dollars. No new refineries are planned for the West for obvious reasons. As much as I’d like to say otherwise, there is precious little chance of adding value to our petroleum exports when new refineries are so expensive here.

Which is why we need to find ways to add value to our other resources.There are many North American resources that are being exported away and some would say, squandered away. We need much more focus on a value-added economy. We need to add value to our diminishing resources before they leave our Western economy.

One way, is to manufacture products out of our resources — and then sell them abroad, to enhance our balance of payments, which would contribute to enhancing our GDP, thereby lowering our overall debt-to-GDP ratio. Those ratios are killing us right now in the West.

Another good way to improve our Western economic picture is to tariff all resource exports and use that money to fund infrastructure projects, which would contribute much to the economy, but only temporarily. After all those projects reach completion in about ten years, workers (consumers with disposable income) will again be unemployed or under-employed, just as they are now. What then?

Some economists have suggested a Goods and Services Tax for the U.S. economy and to use those windfall tax funds for national infrastructure programs, as was done in Canada so successfully from 1990 – 2004. I am one of those people. However, with the latest projected U.S. growth rates set to be 1.5% to 1.6% for next year, that means there is a lot of fragility in the economy and some economists say a large, useful Goods and Services Tax might stall the recovery process. A smaller tax would be much less useful, but the taxation rate could be increased as the economy builds positive momentum. Even with those limitations, it is still a good option for the U.S.

It keeps coming back to the fact that we need to add more value to our economy, especially to our export economy on a long-term sustainable basis. We need to create MORE jobs from the resources we extract and from our agriculture and forestry industries — or eventually there won’t be enough demand for Asian-produced products and when those Asian sales sag due to lack of demand in the West, it will hit the fan everywhere.

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John Brian Shannon writes about green energy, sustainable development and economics from British Columbia, Canada. His articles appear in the Arabian Gazette, EcoPoint Asia, EnergyBoom, the Huffington Post, the United Nations Development Programme – and other quality publications.

John believes it is important to assist all levels of government and the business community to find sustainable ways forward for industry and consumers.

Check out his personal blog at: http://johnbrianshannon.com
Check out his economics blog at:
https://jbsnews.wordpress.com
Follow John on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/#!/JBSCanada

The Prescription for America’s Economy

by John Brian Shannon

As much as I’d like to simply jot down the prescription to cure what ails the American economy, I won’t.  Not before discussing it with you first.

Any doctor will tell you it is better to question, test, diagnose — and then prescribe. So, on that doctorly note let us commit to what ails the U.S. economy before I go off writing prescriptions.

It seems that America is not feeling too well, although she is still plenty powerful. Just sort of an uneasy feeling, a lack of confidence and somewhat limited flexibility. Underneath it all, she is sitting on top of a mountain of debt which just feels wrong.

Ed Hall’s excellent website has numerous links for visitors who may be interested in America’s debt and deficit information.

Here is a snapshot of what it said today:

The Outstanding Public Debt as of 28 Jul 2012 is:
$ 1 5 , 8 8 3 , 9 7 2 , 7 6 5 , 4 7 2 . 1 6

The estimated population of the United States is 313,211,460 so each citizen’s share of this debt is $50,713.26.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of $3.90 billion per day since September 28, 2007!

If we add to that debt, the total unfunded liabilities and expenses of the United States, the total  liability of the U.S. federal government rises to an estimated 130-140 trillion dollars when all entitlement spending obligations are factored in. Ouch.

Not quite a ‘Code Blue’ condition, but a little too close for comfort. Time to call a doctor – and a good one!

Economist and former senior federal economic policymaker, J. Antonio “Tony” Villamil, the dean of the business school at St. Thomas University, who served as U.S. undersecretary of Commerce for economic affairs during the George H.W. Bush administration, commented in the Miami Herald on America’s debt situation.

The federal debt/GDP ratio is on an unsustainable path, with the federal debt held by the public surpassing 100 percent of GDP in a few short years, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). If we desire stronger economic and employment growth, we need a market-credible, long-term fiscal plan that places the federal debt/GDP ratio on a declining scale. Read the entire article here…

Dean Villamil has labeled the present era as “The New Normal” with cyclical (short-term) and fundamental (long-term) factors at play “that suggest a continued period of sluggish economic activity and slow employment growth…”

He expects the cyclical problems — such as the burst real estate bubble and a huge build-up of private debt, both of which conspired to create the largest economic contraction since the Great Depression — will diminish over the next 12 months leaving America with (only!) some fundamental economic challenges to solve.

[Fundamentally]… at this stage of an economic cycle, the economy should be expanding at a 3-percent to 4-percent annual rate, not at the tepid 2 percent or less, as is the case today. – Prof. Tony Villamil

Professor Villamil believes as I do, that growth-based policy is the better way to solve the economic juggernaut squarely ahead of us. When GDP grows faster than the federal debt, the debt-to-GDP level falls correspondingly, which is a happy side-effect of more and better-paying jobs for citizens, higher revenues for governments and a better educated workforce on account of all those parents who can now afford to send junior to university.

Canada took the ultimate shortcut towards these goals some time ago and it was hailed as a spectacular success. The Canadian government instituted a 7% Goods and Services tax on practically everything sold in Canada, from bubble-gum to skyscrapers and everything in between. This raked in uncountable billions of dollars for the government which allowed it to eliminate the huge deficit, make significant paydowns on the accumulated debt, finance massive job creation programs and restructure it’s financial obligations. It’s an outstanding and well-documented success by any measure.

This success story illustrates a major economic leap for Canada and one easily tailored to the U.S. situation. It should be carefully considered by U.S. policy-makers.

One problem Canada wasn’t required to face, was an economy awash in trillions of dollars of ‘easy money’  which led millions of American consumers towards insolvency when the economy began changing in response to economic events occurring outside the U.S.A. in 2008.

For example, the monetary base, due to Fed action, has exploded to $2.6 trillion as of May 2012. This could create an inflationary spiral in the longer term, causing another great recession. Read Dean Villamil here…

For those who support a massive injection of cash into the economy by the government, this is a fine short-term way to stimulate the economy, provide employment, increase taxation revenue for governments and to temporarily stabilize the economy. It is a fine idea and worthy of serious consideration by American policy-makers.

But while stimulus spending would help the economy short-term, it does not address the core issue of the non-growth government policies which caused America’s economic woes in the first place.

I promised you a prescription America, and here it is;

  • A federal 7% Goods and Services Tax on everything sold inside the country beginning in 2013. Some amount of revenue-sharing should occur. If 50 billion dollars of GST are collected in the state of California by the federal government by Jan 1, 2014, for example, California should receive half that amount back from the feds — which the state can then use to spend on it’s own infrastructure and debt-reduction program.
  • Of the federal government’s portion of the GST — half of it should go to paydown the federal deficit until there is no deficit.
  • The other half of the federal government’s portion of the GST should be used for ‘shovel-ready’ infrastructure projects designed to cut unemployment levels in every state.
  • The planned budget cuts to U.S. military spending and other federal spending cuts should still occur as they are necessary and overdue, but could benefit from a relaxed implementation schedule.
  • A comprehensive, results-oriented, duplication of services and waste reduction study by all federal departments with the emphasis on cost-reduction and streamlining of services.
  • Which easily-treatable illnesses could increase American productivity if that cost was covered by government? We need a list! Spending mere pennies per worker here, can save the country many billions of dollars of lost productivity.

Short-term stimulus, combined with a national sales tax – the proceeds of which to be evenly split with the states, eventual elimination of the federal deficit, massive spending on national infrastructure projects, continued cuts to military spending on a slightly-relaxed schedule, national waste/duplication elimination, along with increases to productivity courtesy of free (minor disease) health care – will have America feeling back to her old-self within ten years — and after that, feeling ever better!

In fact you’re looking better now America — just reading your prescription!

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About John Brian Shannon

I write about green energy, sustainable development and economics. My blogs appear in the Arabian Gazette, EcoPoint, EnergyBoom, Huffington Post, United Nations Development Programme, WACSI — and other quality publications.

It is important to assist all levels of government and the business community to find sustainable ways forward for industry and consumers.

Green Energy blog: http://johnbrianshannon.com
Economics blog: https://jbsnews.wordpress.com
Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/#!/JBSCanada

The Canadian Austerity Success Story

The Canadian Austerity Success Story | 12/07/12
by John Brian Shannon John Brian Shannon

The Canadian success story on deficit elimination, debt reduction and significantly, strengthening the economy by adding jobs and improved economic performance during troubled economic times has been well-documented.

The Canadian icon known as MacLeans Magazine featured an outstanding piece by LEAH McLAREN in the October 10, 2011 edition entitled I told you so – which covered Prime Minister of the UK, David Cameron‘s speech to a joint session of the Canadian Parliament (both the Senate and the House of Commons) where PM David Cameron made a number of positive comments regarding Canada’s economic success.

Cameron commented:

“Canada got every major decision right” in the past few years of global market turmoil. He lauded the strength of both the Canadian banking system and our economic leaders, who, he said, “got to grips with its deficit” and were “running surpluses and paying down debt before the recession, fixing the roof while the sun was shining.”

Cameron’s admiration for Canada’s relatively peachy fiscal position stands in stark contrast to his dim view of his Eurozone neighbours. On the topic of Europe and the U.S. getting their own houses in order, Cameron said; “This is not a traditional, cyclical recession – it’s a debt crisis…”

He went on to say;

“When the fundamental problem of the level of debt and the fear of those levels, then the usual economic prescriptions cannot be applied.” – MacLean’s Magazine.

Read the entire article here…

MacLean’s is not the only publisher to write on this topic. Canada’s Globe & Mail have also published articles discussing the Canadian economic success story of the 1990’s and early 2000’s.

A seminal article by LOUISE EGAN and RANDALL PALMER ran in the Nov 21, 2011 edition of the G&M entitled The lesson from Canada on cutting deficits — a short excerpt of which appears below. Please take the time to read and save the entire article.

“Finance officials bit their nails and nervously watched the clock. There were 30 minutes left in a bond auction aimed at funding the deficit and there was not a single bid.

Sounds like today’s Italy or Greece?

No, this was Canada in 1994.

Bids eventually came in, but that close call, along with downgrades and The Wall Street Journal calling Canada “an honorary member of the Third World,” helped the nation’s people and politicians understand how scary its budget problem was.

“There would have been a day when we would have been the Greece of today,” recalled then prime minister Jean Chrétien, a Liberal who ended up chopping cherished social programs in one of the most dramatic fiscal turnarounds ever.

“I knew we were in a bind and we had to do something,” Mr. Chrétien, 77, told Reuters in a rare interview.

Canada’s shift from pariah to fiscal darling provides lessons for Washington as lawmakers find few easy answers to the huge U.S. deficit and debt burden, and for European countries staggering under their own massive budget problems.

“Everyone wants to know how we did it,” said political economist Brian Lee Crowley, head of the Ottawa-based think tank, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, who has examined the lessons of the 1990’s.

But to win its budget wars, Canada first had to realize how dire its situation was and then dramatically shrink the size of government rather than just limit the pace of spending growth.

It would eventually oversee the biggest reduction in Canadian government spending since demobilization after the Second World War. The big cuts, and relatively small tax increases, brought a budget surplus within four years.

Canadian debt shrank to 29 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008-09 from a peak of 68 per cent in 1995-96, and the budget was in the black for 11 consecutive years until the 2008-09 recession.

For Canada, the vicious debt circle turned into a virtuous cycle that rescued a currency that had been dubbed the “northern peso.” Canada went from having the second worst fiscal position in the Group of Seven industrialized countries, behind only Italy, to easily the best.

It is far from a coincidence that the recent recession was shorter and shallower in Canada than in the United States. Indeed, by January, Canada had recovered all the jobs lost in the downturn, while the U.S. has hardly been able to dent its high unemployment.

“We used to thank God that Italy was there because we were the second worst in the G7,” said Scott Clark, associate deputy finance minister in the 1990’s.

Canada’s experience turned on its head the prevailing wisdom that spending promises were the easiest way to win elections. Politicians of all kinds and at all levels of government learned that austerity could win.”  read more…

For those unfamiliar with examples of successful austerity, Canada holds great promise. There are others to discuss in the coming days – which will illustrate austerity can actually lessen the unfavourable effects of decades of excessive spending by governments and improve the economic position of a nation.