BP Energy Outlook 2035 and Royal Dutch Shell ‘New Lens Scenario’ download PDF’s

BP Energy Outlook 2035 and Royal Dutch Shell ‘New Lens Scenario’ PDF’s | 17/01/14
by John Brian Shannon John Brian Shannon


BP Energy Outlook downloads


The BP Energy Outlook 2035 – contains our projections of long-term energy trends


Energy Outlook 2035 (by country or region)

Background papers

Shell: Oil Is Not The Future Of Transportation

by Zachary Shahan

Royal Dutch Shell -- Oil is not the future
Royal Dutch Shell — Oil is not the future.

Originally published on EV Obsession.

Earlier this year, Shell released its most recent future energy scenario report, New Lens Scenarios (check out the PDF here). One of the big highlights, in my eyes, was that one of the scenarios (Oceans) projected that solar energy would become the largest source of energy by 2070. However, another big projection that someone recently picked out of the report is that the world of passenger vehicles could be nearly oil-free by 2070.

From the Mountains scenario (the not-as-green one): “By 2070, the passenger road market could be nearly oil-free and towards the end of the century an extensive hydrogen infrastructure rollout displaces oil demand for long haul and heavy loads. By this time, electricity and hydrogen may dominate, and affordable, plug-in, hybrid hydrogen vehicles offer the ultimate in flexibility and efficiency.”

As I noted when I first wrote about this Shell report, Shell’s cleantech projections might sound optimistic to a lay reader, but other (non-oil) companies and nonprofits have put forth much more optimistic projections and scenarios, ones in which solar energy and electric vehicles come to dominate much sooner. Shell, even if it is clear that we are moving away from oil, is trying to push a related resource it could tap for trillions of dollars — natural gas. To read its report or projections without paying attention to that would be to miss one of the key reasons Shell pumped time and money into this report.

But the key takeaway point does stand: even Shell realizes that a cleantech revolution is underway.

The second takeaway point is simply: Shell’s projections see the cleantech revolution happening very slowly, because that is what Shell is pushing for.

Don’t miss the second point for the first one, but certainly do go and parade this first point. It would be nice to think that only an illogical Fox News–brainwashed troll would think that cleantech is not the future of energy. But the truth is: a lot of common people don’t realize that cleantech is the future. Share the news!

h/t Motley Fool & Autoblog Green

Repost.Us - Republish This Article

This article, Shell: Oil Is Not The Future Of Transportation, is syndicated from Clean Technica and is posted here with permission.


About the Author

Zachary Shahan is the director of CleanTechnica, the most popular cleantech-focused website in the world, and Planetsave, a world-leading green and science news site. He has been covering green news of various sorts since 2008, and he has been especially focused on solar energy, electric vehicles, and wind energy for the past four years or so. Aside from his work on CleanTechnica and Planetsave, he’s the Network Manager for their parent organization – Important Media – and he’s the Owner/Founder of Solar Love, EV Obsession, and Bikocity. To connect with Zach on some of your favorite social networks, go to ZacharyShahan.com and click on the relevant buttons.


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Our Energy Future includes good news too!

Most of the world’s energy supply is fossil fuel based. However, recent successes in renewable energy foretell a ‘cleaner’ future energy mix. Image courtesy of: www.drsoram.com
Most of the world’s energy supply is fossil fuel based. However, recent successes in renewable energy foretell a ‘cleaner’ future energy mix. Image courtesy of: www.drsoram.com

by John Brian Shannon

Most of the world’s energy supply is fossil fuel (86.2%) based. However, that statistic is set for unprecedented change as recent successes in renewable energy foretell of a ‘cleaner’ energy future.

World energy consumption increases every year, while the kinds of energy we use is changing, and environmental standards are (unequally) improving worldwide.

In short, we are using more energy — but it is ‘cleaner’ energy.

For instance, half of the added electrical capacity every year comes from renewable energy. And with major political initiatives in many countries promoting renewable energy, it is realistic to think that the share of renewables will increase over the coming decades.

Even major petroleum companies are changing their ways.

A recent, landmark report by Royal Dutch Shell illustrates a dramatically new order among the various kinds of energy and how the energy we use will change over the next 80-90 years. In Shell’s; NEW LENS SCENARIOS – A SHIFT IN PERSPECTIVE FOR A WORLD IN TRANSITION the company discusses two different scenarios, named ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ in our global energy future.

The boom in natural gas figures prominently, with natural gas quickly ramping-up to become the number one kind of energy in the world by 2030.

“The underlying pent-up demand for gas is very strong… we see it being sucked up, every molecule.” — Jeremy Bentham, the main authour of the NEW LENS SCENARIOS – A SHIFT IN PERSPECTIVE FOR A WORLD IN TRANSITION, talking about the anticipated level of demand for natural gas between now and 2030

Solar energy becomes the dominant kind of energy by the mid-2060’s supplying 38% of all demand worldwide!

  • By 2060, the report has PV solar power moving from today’s 13th-place, into 1st-place, to provide at least 38% of global energy demand. See: Shell Sees Solar As The Biggest Energy Source After Exiting It in 2009.
  • Due to enhanced Carbon Capture and Storage and clean combustion technology; “Global emissions of carbon dioxide dropping to near zero by 2100.”
  • Shell New Lens Scenarios says; “By 2100, energy from oil will account for only 10% of worldwide energy use and natural gas will account for just 7.5 percent of the global total.”

While the ‘energy produced to emissions released ratio’ looks utterly dreadful over the short term, over the long term it looks quite wonderful. If only we had a time machine to take us to the latter half of this century, we could all go for a nice breath of fresh air!

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