Japan Solar PV Industry Reaches 10 GW Milestone

By Joshua S Hill – Special to JBS News

 

New research conducted by NPD Solarbuzz and featured on their blog this past week shows that Japanese solar photovoltaic “PV” installations have now passed 10 GW for cumulative PV capacity, only the fifth country to reach the mark. Of the previous four — Germany, Italy, China, and the US — the latter two only reached the milestone within the past few months, highlighting Japan’s achievement.

Japan Hits 10 GW Milestone

Writing on the Solarbuzz website, NPD Group Vice President Finlay Colville pointed to three landmark high-points along Japan’s solar PV leadership, highlighting not only their recent 10 GW milestone, but also that Japan was the first country to reach the 1 GW of cumulative solar PV back in 2004. This was helped along by;

  • The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) launched a subsidy program for residential PV systems as far back as 1994. Initially, the subsidy covered 50% of the cost of PV systems. The budget for FY 1994 was 2 billion Yen.
  • Until 2005, Japan had the largest installed PV capacity of any country in the world. This early leadership position was achieved through a well-managed set of programs, coupled with attractive market incentives.
  • The early growth of the Japanese PV market was a strong factor in establishing Japanese manufacturing as the first dominant force in the solar PV industry. Manufacturers that benefited from the first phase of government initiatives include several of the companies that are now leaders in the domestic PV industry revival: Sharp, Sanyo and Kyocera.

In the Face of Fukushima

Sadly, another factor that has to be considered in Japan’s recent increase in solar PV installation must be the fallout from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear ‘disaster’ which followed the massive earthquake and subsequent tsunami on March 11, 2011. Corollary evidence might suggest that the launch of the feed-in tariff program in July 2012 which was focused towards fostering the development and installation of renewable energy throughout the country was a direct response to the subsequent shut down of all of Japan’s nuclear reactors in the wake of the disaster. Regardless of the why, however, this feed-in tariff has been instrumental in accelerating the deployment of large-scale renewable technologies, helping the country’s PV market grow rapidly over the past 12 months.

2013 Sees Regular Growth

There is a litany of Japanese solar stories covered here on CleanTechnica to back up these numbers, not the least of which was a report published in March of this year that predicted the number of Japanese solar installations would overtake the US and Germany this year.

As mentioned earlier, IMS Research — a part of IHS — predicted earlier this year that;

“[the] Japanese [PV] market is set to grow by 120 percent in 2013 and install more than 5 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity … with installations expected to exceed 1 GW in the first quarter alone.”

At the end of May, IHS followed up their earlier report, revealing that not only had Japan reached the 1 GW mark for installations in the first quarter, but that they had installed 1.5 GW, “a stunning 270 percent in the first quarter of 2013″ and were on track to become the “world’s largest solar revenue market in 2013″. While the Japanese Agency for Natural Resources and Energy reported that Japan had added 1,240 MW  of solar installations in April and May.

Again borrowing from Colville’s piece on the Solarbuzz website, Japan’s PV industry has benefited greatly from renewed interest in the sector, resulting in;

  • Cumulative solar PV installed in Japan broke through the 10 GW barrier during August 2013 and exceeded 10.5 GW at the end of August.
  • Until the end of 2012, the Japanese PV market had been heavily weighted towards the rooftop segment, with 97% of PV capacity.
  • During the first eight months of 2013, the ground-mount segment has accounted for 27% of new solar PV capacity installed.
  • Over the first three quarters of calendar year 2013, Japan is forecast to install more PV capacity than during the entire three-year period spanning 2010 to 2012.
  • At the end of August 2013, rooftop solar PV installations remain the dominant type of PV installations by project number and by MW volume, with 89% of market share by capacity. The remaining 11% is spread across the ground-mount and off-grid segments.
Cumulative solar PV installed in Japan at the end of August 2013 (shown as 2013 YTD) Image Credit: NPD Solarbuzz Asia Pacific PV Market Quarterly
Cumulative solar PV installed in Japan at the end of August 2013 (shown as 2013 YTD)
Image Credit: NPD Solarbuzz Asia Pacific PV Market Quarterly

Writing more recently, Giles Parkinson from RenewEconomy recently noted that “China, Japan, and the US will compete for domination in the coming years,” while noting that fresh faces are going to be growing up over that same period, with “strong markets in the rest of Asia, Africa and South America … also emerging.”

Looking back over the past few months of the year, we can see just how efficiently the Japanese solar PV industry has been working. Earlier this month it was revealed that Japan was one of only two countries to be home to a competing solar module manufacturer, outside of China (which is dominating the sector). In May it was revealed that by February of this year, Japan had 12.2 GW of new solar installations in the pipeline, including a 400 MW solar power park approved for installation on a remote Japanese island located off the southern coast. Again in May, the Deutsche Bank noted that the Japanese market could reach an annual “run rate” of 7 to 9 GW.

Japanese Solar in the Future

Looking forward, new figures from the Mercom Capital Group reiterate their earlier estimations of a global installation forecast for solar PV of approximately 38 GW by the end of the year, including 8.5 GW installed in China, 7 in Japan, and another 4.5 in the US.

“After years of overcapacity, bankruptcies and record low prices we are now seeing price stabilization, higher capacity utilization rates and a move towards supply-demand equilibrium,” explained Mercom Capital Co-Founder and CEO Raj Prabhu in a blog post. “Market conditions for solar look much better than they did just three months ago and we are reiterating our global installation forecast of ~38 GW for 2013. One of the big overhangs, the China-EU trade case, has been settled, which could have otherwise set off an all-out trade war. This brings some sorely needed certainty to the market.”

A Challenging Future

Both NPD Solarbuzz and Mercom are predicting challenges ahead for Japan, however, with module supply shortages, grid connection issues, and overcapacity concerns. Mercom note that there are reports suggesting “some of the PV project [applications] are getting rejected citing overcapacity and grid stability issues” — adding that the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry have admitted that “some of the facilities approved have not begun construction and they are conducting a survey to find reasons behind the delays including whether there is a shortage of materials.”

All in all, Japan’s solar industry is heading in a good direction, and minus a few bumps along the way, it will be no real surprise to see Japan at the top of solar PV tables for years to come.

This article, Japan Solar PV Industry Reaches 10 GW Milestone, is syndicated from Clean Technica and is posted here with permission.

About the Author

I’m a Christian, a nerd, a geek, a liberal left-winger, and believe that we’re pretty quickly directing planet-Earth into hell in a handbasket! I work as Associate Editor for the Important Media Network and write for CleanTechnica and Planetsave. I also write for Fantasy Book Review (.co.uk), Amazing Stories, the Stabley Times and Medium.   I love words with a passion, both creating them and reading them.

Royal Dutch Shell Report Spells Big Changes for Energy

by John Brian Shannon

Royal Dutch Shell has published a startling report in which it lays out it’s future view and it has detailed huge global implications for citizens, governments and the energy industry.

Shell’s New Lense Scenarios (policy paper) paints a picture of a new order among the different kinds of energy and how energy use will change between now and 2100.

Two different scenarios are discussed and named. The two, named ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ take different views of the many factors likely to affect the industry over the next 87 years,  but there is more consensus than disagreement between the two views.

The boom in natural gas figures prominently in both scenarios with natural gas dramatically ramping-up to become the number one kind of energy in the world by 2030.

“In 2030, natural gas becomes the largest global primary energy source, ending a 70-year reign for oil.” — NLS report

Due to enhanced Carbon Capture and Storage, clean combustion technology and the use of CO2 gas for industrial processes by 2100, Shell sees global emissions of carbon dioxide dropping by 2100, to nearly zero.

A quote from the report’s main authour Jeremy Bentham, speaks volumes about the anticipated level of demand for natural gas; “The underlying pent-up demand for gas is very strong…we see it being sucked up, every molecule.”

By 2060, the report has PV solar power moving into number one position to provide at least 38 percent of global energy supply — well up from today’s distant ranking of 13th place. See; Shell Sees Solar As The Biggest Energy Source After Exiting It in 2009.

Due to enhanced Carbon Capture and Storage, clean combustion technology and the use of CO2 gas for industrial processes by 2100, Shell sees “global emissions of carbon dioxide dropping to near zero by 2100”.

By 2100, energy from oil will account for only 10 percent of worldwide energy use and natural gas will account for just 7.5 percent of the global total, Shell said.

What might lie ahead 50 years from now… or even in 2100? We consider two possible scenarios of the future, taking a number of pressing global trends and issues and using them as “lenses” through which to view the world.

The scenarios provide a detailed analysis of current trends and their likely trajectory into the future. They dive into the implications for the pace of global economic development, the types of energy we use to power our lives and the growth in greenhouse gas emissions.

The scenarios also highlight areas of public policy likely to have the greatest influence on the development of cleaner fuels, improvements in energy efficiency and on moderating greenhouse gas emissions.

Mountains

The first scenario, labelled “mountains”, sees a strong role for government and the introduction of firm and far-reaching policy measures. These help to develop more compact cities and transform the global transport network. New policies unlock plentiful natural gas resources – making it the largest global energy source by the 2030s – and accelerate carbon capture and storage technology, supporting a cleaner energy system.

Oceans

The second scenario, which we call “oceans”, describes a more prosperous and volatile world. Energy demand surges, due to strong economic growth. Power is more widely distributed and governments take longer to agree major decisions. Market forces rather than policies shape the energy system: oil and coal remain part of the energy mix but renewable energy also grows. By the 2060s solar becomes the world’s largest energy source. – Shell

Download New Lens Scenarios PDF (PDF, 9 MB) – opens in new window

After selling off it’s global solar holdings in 2009, except for those located in Japan, Shell, having taken a long, studious look into the future, has since embraced PV solar as never before and is presently buying back it’s own shares at a brisk pace.

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Royal Dutch Shell Drops Two ‘Bombs’ in One Week

Royal Dutch Shell Drops Two ‘Bombs’ in One Week | 01/03/13
by John Brian Shannon John Brian Shannon

First came the announcement this week by Shell senior executives that oil extraction in the Arctic would be postponed for the second year in a row, and second is yesterday’s announcement foreshadowing the company’s plan for the future, Shell Sees Solar As The Biggest Energy Source After Exiting It in 2009.

The New Lens Scenarios Europe Shell report depicts two different energy policy scenarios, predicts that “photovoltaic panels will be the main power source by 2060 or 2070”  (depending on which scenario) and “lower costs and state support will boost solar to about 600 gigawatts in 2035” – worldwide totals.

What might lie ahead 50 years from now… or even in 2100? We consider two possible scenarios of the future, taking a number of pressing global trends and issues and using them as “lenses” through which to view the world.

The scenarios provide a detailed analysis of current trends and their likely trajectory into the future. They dive into the implications for the pace of global economic development, the types of energy we use to power our lives and the growth in greenhouse gas emissions.

The scenarios also highlight areas of public policy likely to have the greatest influence on the development of cleaner fuels, improvements in energy efficiency and on moderating greenhouse gas emissions.

Mountains

The first scenario, labelled “mountains”, sees a strong role for government and the introduction of firm and far-reaching policy measures. These help to develop more compact cities and transform the global transport network. New policies unlock plentiful natural gas resources – making it the largest global energy source by the 2030s – and accelerate carbon capture and storage technology, supporting a cleaner energy system.

Oceans

The second scenario, which we call “oceans”, describes a more prosperous and volatile world. Energy demand surges, due to strong economic growth. Power is more widely distributed and governments take longer to agree major decisions. Market forces rather than policies shape the energy system: oil and coal remain part of the energy mix but renewable energy also grows. By the 2060s solar becomes the world’s largest energy source. – Shell

According to information compiled from Bloomberg New Energy Finance and the International Energy Agency, solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity has grown to about 102 gigawatts worldwide in 2012 – which is up from 1 gigawatt globally in 2000.

Since year 2000, an average of 10 gigawatts of PV solar, per year, has been very unevenly added to the world’s electrical grids, but if PV solar installations were to grow at the same rate as the 2000-2012 timeframe, just 450 gigawatts of PV solar would be installed by 2035 — not the 600 gigawatts predicted by the report. The growth rate for PV solar has been astonishing for a new kind of energy for utility companies — and additionally so, considering it is battling with the big boys of the energy world, oil & gas, coal and nuclear. Regardless of past challenges, strong growth in PV solar is forecast until 2100.

All of this means that PV solar is set to grow dramatically between now and 2035, let alone by 2070.

Peter Endig/dpa via AP Images
Shell Solar GmbH 2004 | World’s then-largest solar power plant in Espenhain, Germany | Image credit courtesy: Peter Endig/dpa via AP Images

The report has PV solar power moving to number one position to provide at least 38% of worldwide energy supply (well up from today’s ranking of 13th place) to become the predominant kind of energy by 2100.

By 2100, energy from oil will account for only 10% of worldwide energy use and natural gas will account for just 7.5% of the worldwide total, Shell said.

Due to enhanced Carbon Capture and Storage, clean combustion technology and the use of CO2 gas for industrial processes by 2100, Shell sees “global emissions of carbon dioxide dropping to near zero by 2100”.

As all of the above plays out, natural gas demand is expected to surpass the historic demands seen for any other kind of fuel and the quote from the report’s main authour Jeremy Bentham, speaks volumes about the anticipated level of demand for the gas.

“The underlying pent-up demand for gas is very strong…we see it being sucked up, every molecule.”– Jeremy Bentham

The overall demand for energy will double in the next 50 years due to population growth and increases in living standards, and natural gas will eventually enjoy the highest level of fuel demand in history. But by 2100, the world will mainly run on PV solar, while other kinds of energy will contribute small percentages to the overall global energy mix.

It now appears that Shell would rather ‘switch than fight’ the move to PV solar. It is likely to be the first of many such switches in the global energy industry.

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