Despite an overall slump in installations in 2013, the global cumulative wind power capacity will more than double from 319.6 Gigawatts (GW) at the end of 2013 to 678.5 GW by 2020, says research and consulting firm GlobalData.
The company’s latest report* states that China, the largest single wind power market, responsible for 45% of total global annual capacity additions in 2013, is expected to have a cumulative wind capacity of 239.7 GW by 2020. China overtook the US as the leading market for installations in 2010, when it added a massive 18.9 GW of wind capacity.
Harshavardhan Reddy Nagatham, GlobalData’s Analyst covering Alternative Energy, says:
China doubled its cumulative wind capacity every year from 2006 to 2009 and has continued to grow significantly since then. Supportive government policies, such as an attractive concessional program and the availability of low-cost financing from banks, have been fundamental to China’s success.
While China will continue to be the largest global wind power market through to 2020, growth for the forecast period will be slow due to a large installation base.
The report also states that the US will remain the second largest global wind power market in terms of cumulative installed capacity, increasing from 68.9 GW in 2014 to 104.1 GW in 2020.
This will largely be driven by renewable energy targets in several states, such as Alaska’s aim to reach 50% renewable power generation and Texas’ mandate to achieve 10 GW of renewable capacity, both by 2025.
The slump in 2013 was largely a product of a decrease in installations in the US and Spain. While there are likely to be further slight falls in annual capacity additions in 2015 and 2016, overall industry growth will not be affected as global annual capacity additions are expected to exceed 60 GW by 2020.
The European Union could cut its carbon emissions by as much as 40% (against 1990 levels) by the year 2030 using nothing but “low-cost” measures, according to a new study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
The study — undertaken with the aid of 11 other notable research groups — makes it clear that significant cuts can be made to the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions, even relatively rapidly, while having only very negligible negative effects (if any) with regard to the economy. To be precise, the study predicts that such cuts “would be likely to cost less than an additional 0.7% of economic activity.”
The findings were released today ahead of the announcement next week of the European Commission’s proposals for a new set of climate targets and policies to replace the current targets for 2020s. According to various reports, key figures within Brussels still remain divided on the level of emission reduction targets that should be adopted for 2030, with speculation mounting that the bloc could opt for a weaker than expected target of 35 percent. Moreover, it remains uncertain as to whether or not member states will opt to extend current targets for the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency measures through to 2030 or back UK calls for such technology-specific targets to be shelved. The new report argues that more ambitious emissions targets of up to 40 percent can be met using existing and cost-effective technologies.
“In the next two decades, it is possible to achieve the transformation using existing technologies,” stated lead researcher Brigitte Knopf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Who also noted that “the modelling showed that after 2030 new technologies would be required to deliver the deep 80 percent emission cuts the bloc has pledged to provide by 2050.”
Continuing along that line of reasoning, Knopf argued that aggressive new targets and policies are a necessity — both with regard to achieving cuts now, and also with regard to spurring the development of “innovative new technologies”.
“A clear price signal has to be set today, for instance in the European Emissions Trading System,” she said. “It would provide an incentive for innovation that would prevent energy systems from being locked into long-lasting investments in CO2-intensive technologies, such as coal-fired power plants.”
Interestingly, the modeling from the new study also suggests that there are a number of quite different options available to policymakers for achieving the goal of a 40% cut by 2030 — anything from ramping up the deployment of renewable energy technologies, to improving energy efficiency, to building more nuclear power plants, etc.
Nathan For the fate of the sons of men and the fate of beasts is the same; as one dies, so dies the other. They all have the same breath, and man has no advantage over the beasts; for all is vanity. – Ecclesiastes 3:19