Japan Solar PV Industry Reaches 10 GW Milestone

By Joshua S Hill – Special to JBS News

 

New research conducted by NPD Solarbuzz and featured on their blog this past week shows that Japanese solar photovoltaic “PV” installations have now passed 10 GW for cumulative PV capacity, only the fifth country to reach the mark. Of the previous four — Germany, Italy, China, and the US — the latter two only reached the milestone within the past few months, highlighting Japan’s achievement.

Japan Hits 10 GW Milestone

Writing on the Solarbuzz website, NPD Group Vice President Finlay Colville pointed to three landmark high-points along Japan’s solar PV leadership, highlighting not only their recent 10 GW milestone, but also that Japan was the first country to reach the 1 GW of cumulative solar PV back in 2004. This was helped along by;

  • The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) launched a subsidy program for residential PV systems as far back as 1994. Initially, the subsidy covered 50% of the cost of PV systems. The budget for FY 1994 was 2 billion Yen.
  • Until 2005, Japan had the largest installed PV capacity of any country in the world. This early leadership position was achieved through a well-managed set of programs, coupled with attractive market incentives.
  • The early growth of the Japanese PV market was a strong factor in establishing Japanese manufacturing as the first dominant force in the solar PV industry. Manufacturers that benefited from the first phase of government initiatives include several of the companies that are now leaders in the domestic PV industry revival: Sharp, Sanyo and Kyocera.

In the Face of Fukushima

Sadly, another factor that has to be considered in Japan’s recent increase in solar PV installation must be the fallout from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear ‘disaster’ which followed the massive earthquake and subsequent tsunami on March 11, 2011. Corollary evidence might suggest that the launch of the feed-in tariff program in July 2012 which was focused towards fostering the development and installation of renewable energy throughout the country was a direct response to the subsequent shut down of all of Japan’s nuclear reactors in the wake of the disaster. Regardless of the why, however, this feed-in tariff has been instrumental in accelerating the deployment of large-scale renewable technologies, helping the country’s PV market grow rapidly over the past 12 months.

2013 Sees Regular Growth

There is a litany of Japanese solar stories covered here on CleanTechnica to back up these numbers, not the least of which was a report published in March of this year that predicted the number of Japanese solar installations would overtake the US and Germany this year.

As mentioned earlier, IMS Research — a part of IHS — predicted earlier this year that;

“[the] Japanese [PV] market is set to grow by 120 percent in 2013 and install more than 5 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity … with installations expected to exceed 1 GW in the first quarter alone.”

At the end of May, IHS followed up their earlier report, revealing that not only had Japan reached the 1 GW mark for installations in the first quarter, but that they had installed 1.5 GW, “a stunning 270 percent in the first quarter of 2013″ and were on track to become the “world’s largest solar revenue market in 2013″. While the Japanese Agency for Natural Resources and Energy reported that Japan had added 1,240 MW  of solar installations in April and May.

Again borrowing from Colville’s piece on the Solarbuzz website, Japan’s PV industry has benefited greatly from renewed interest in the sector, resulting in;

  • Cumulative solar PV installed in Japan broke through the 10 GW barrier during August 2013 and exceeded 10.5 GW at the end of August.
  • Until the end of 2012, the Japanese PV market had been heavily weighted towards the rooftop segment, with 97% of PV capacity.
  • During the first eight months of 2013, the ground-mount segment has accounted for 27% of new solar PV capacity installed.
  • Over the first three quarters of calendar year 2013, Japan is forecast to install more PV capacity than during the entire three-year period spanning 2010 to 2012.
  • At the end of August 2013, rooftop solar PV installations remain the dominant type of PV installations by project number and by MW volume, with 89% of market share by capacity. The remaining 11% is spread across the ground-mount and off-grid segments.
Cumulative solar PV installed in Japan at the end of August 2013 (shown as 2013 YTD) Image Credit: NPD Solarbuzz Asia Pacific PV Market Quarterly
Cumulative solar PV installed in Japan at the end of August 2013 (shown as 2013 YTD)
Image Credit: NPD Solarbuzz Asia Pacific PV Market Quarterly

Writing more recently, Giles Parkinson from RenewEconomy recently noted that “China, Japan, and the US will compete for domination in the coming years,” while noting that fresh faces are going to be growing up over that same period, with “strong markets in the rest of Asia, Africa and South America … also emerging.”

Looking back over the past few months of the year, we can see just how efficiently the Japanese solar PV industry has been working. Earlier this month it was revealed that Japan was one of only two countries to be home to a competing solar module manufacturer, outside of China (which is dominating the sector). In May it was revealed that by February of this year, Japan had 12.2 GW of new solar installations in the pipeline, including a 400 MW solar power park approved for installation on a remote Japanese island located off the southern coast. Again in May, the Deutsche Bank noted that the Japanese market could reach an annual “run rate” of 7 to 9 GW.

Japanese Solar in the Future

Looking forward, new figures from the Mercom Capital Group reiterate their earlier estimations of a global installation forecast for solar PV of approximately 38 GW by the end of the year, including 8.5 GW installed in China, 7 in Japan, and another 4.5 in the US.

“After years of overcapacity, bankruptcies and record low prices we are now seeing price stabilization, higher capacity utilization rates and a move towards supply-demand equilibrium,” explained Mercom Capital Co-Founder and CEO Raj Prabhu in a blog post. “Market conditions for solar look much better than they did just three months ago and we are reiterating our global installation forecast of ~38 GW for 2013. One of the big overhangs, the China-EU trade case, has been settled, which could have otherwise set off an all-out trade war. This brings some sorely needed certainty to the market.”

A Challenging Future

Both NPD Solarbuzz and Mercom are predicting challenges ahead for Japan, however, with module supply shortages, grid connection issues, and overcapacity concerns. Mercom note that there are reports suggesting “some of the PV project [applications] are getting rejected citing overcapacity and grid stability issues” — adding that the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry have admitted that “some of the facilities approved have not begun construction and they are conducting a survey to find reasons behind the delays including whether there is a shortage of materials.”

All in all, Japan’s solar industry is heading in a good direction, and minus a few bumps along the way, it will be no real surprise to see Japan at the top of solar PV tables for years to come.

This article, Japan Solar PV Industry Reaches 10 GW Milestone, is syndicated from Clean Technica and is posted here with permission.

About the Author

I’m a Christian, a nerd, a geek, a liberal left-winger, and believe that we’re pretty quickly directing planet-Earth into hell in a handbasket! I work as Associate Editor for the Important Media Network and write for CleanTechnica and Planetsave. I also write for Fantasy Book Review (.co.uk), Amazing Stories, the Stabley Times and Medium.   I love words with a passion, both creating them and reading them.

US Adds 976MW new Solar PV Capacity In 2Q as California Sets Record

by Silvio Marcacci — Special to JBS News

The US solar photovoltaic (PV) industry just keeps shining, with rising demand across the country pushing installed capacity in second quarter (2Q) 2013 up 24% compared to first quarter (1Q) 2013.

America added 976 megawatts (MW) of new solar PV capacity just in 2Q 2013 alone, according to the NPD Solarbuzz North America PV Markets Quarterly report.

Solar PV demand is expected to continue growing through 2013, but roughly 75% of this new capacity is concentrated in just five states – evidence of the impact smart state policy can have on renewable energy.

US solar PV 2Q 2013 capacity additions by state
US solar PV 2Q 2013 capacity additions chart via NPD Solarbuzz.

Solar PV Demand Growing Fast

The 976MW of new solar PV capacity installed across the country in 2Q could power US solar markets toward a supercharged 2013. 2Q’s installed capacity was 24% higher than 1Q’s 788MW. Utilities led the way with 59% of all projects, and 72% were ground-mounted systems concentrated mainly in several large-scale projects across the Western US.

NPD Solarbuzz predicts solar PV demand will grow 14% to 1.04GW in third quarter (3Q) 2013 en route to an 17% annual increase in PV demand across the US compared to 2012, for a total of 4.22GW new annual installed capacity.

That’s an impressive amount, no doubt, but the best may still be yet to come. An estimated 44GW of commercial and utility projects are in the development pipeline, including 2,300 projects of 50 kilowatts and higher — with more than half of those on commercial locations. At this rate, NPD Solarbuzz predicts the US will be home to 20% of total global solar PV demand within five years.

Growth Concentrated In Just A Few States

But even though the American solar industry’s outlook is brighter than ever, the resulting growth is shining squarely on just a handful of states. California represented a whopping 53% of all 2Q solar PV capacity addition, reaffirming its position as the epicenter of the US clean tech market.”

“California alone reached 521MW, which is a new record for PV added by any state in the US for a three-month period,” said Finlay Colvile of NPD Solarbuzz. “California has added 1.6GW in the past 12 months, with a further 1.1GW forecast for the second half of the year.”

North Carolina, which has fought against efforts to roll back the state renewable energy standard, ranked second with 8% of all 2Q additions. 285MW of new solar PV capacity will come online in the state over 2013, an 80% increase compared to 2012, and demand is forecast to grow an additional 30% in 2014.

New Jersey, which recently became the third state to pass 1GW installed solar, followed close behind at 7%. Arizona and Texas rounded out the top five at 6% and 4% respectively, while eight other states combined for 28% of all remaining solar PV capacity additions.

How Hot Will Solar PV’s Future Get?

The NPD Solarbuzz report once again illuminates the economic and environmental benefits that renewables can create when governments set and maintain progressive policies. America’s solar surge has already pushed it into the ultra-exclusive 10GW installed solar PV club, and it’s helping power green jobs growth across the country.

Falling costs have been the main driver of demand, but state incentives and regulations have remained a steadying hand and dictated where growth has occurred. Consumers could save $20 billion annually by 2050 if solar continues to grow, and every single state in America has the potential to generate more electricity from solar energy than it uses in a single year. Here’s hoping more states will see the light.

This article, US Adds 976MW New Solar PV Capacity In 2Q As California Sets Record, is syndicated from Clean Technica and is posted here with permission.

About the Author

Silvio Marcacci Silvio is Principal at Marcacci Communications, a full-service clean energy and climate-focused public relations company based in Washington, D.C.

 

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